2026 San Diego Padres season preview
Here's just about everything you need to know about the 2026 San Diego Padres before they start playing meaningful baseball games.
The San Diego Padres season starts tomorrow, at home against Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers. That much we know. Everything else is seemingly up in the air.
Let’s go through the different parts of this team and do a preview of what to (maybe) expect in the 2026 season.
Starting Lineup
Much has been said about Fernando Tatis Jr. and where Craig Stammen plans to put him in the batting order.
Towards the end of spring training, after some tinkering and a couple of weeks of World Baseball Classic screwing with things, the Padres manager was still rolling out a different top-four every game. Here’s what it looked like:
March 20
Jake Cronenworth
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Jackson Merrill
Manny Machado
March 22
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Jackson Merrill
Manny Machado
Gavin Sheets
March 23
Jake Cronenworth
Manny Machado
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Jackson Merrill
Over those three games, all four of these guys hit in different spots in the lineup.
And, lest you think Tatis is destined for a top-three spot because of what you see above, he was most often hitting cleanup for the Padres before spending a couple of weeks as the leadoff hitter for the Dominican Republic.
If anyone tells you they know what the lineup is going to be for the Padres this year, they’re lying to you. Not even the manager knows (yet).
That being said, this is a much better lineup than it was a year ago:
Gavin Sheets, Nick Castellanos and Miguel Andujar seems like an upgrade over Luis Arráez and Yuli Gurriel. Ramon Laureano is a clear upgrade over Brandon Lockridge (and Jason Heyward). Freddy Fermin is at least as good as Elias Díaz, and there’s potential for him to be better.
That should make it more difficult for opposing pitchers to pitch themselves out of jams by getting to the bottom of the Padres lineup.
I personally think Stammen might try to tailor his lineups to the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher, which means that Fernando Tatis Jr. might be leading off against Tarik Skubal on Opening Day but hitting closer to the cleanup spot when up against right-handed pitchers.
Starting Rotation
Okay, we need to spend a minute here. In all likelihood, the Padres starting rotation is going to be the thing we talk about the most this season.
Here is what it will be for the first few weeks, at least:
Nick Pivetta
Michael King
Randy Vásquez
Walker Buehler
German Marquez
That won’t be the starting rotation all season, though. If San Diego gets some good injury-luck, Joe Musgrove and Griffin Canning will return and play large roles. Matt Waldron will likely be the 8th guy, assuming this team needs to use at least eight starting pitchers to get through the season.
There is still an interesting starting pitcher or two on the free agent market, and A.J. Preller isn’t above a last-minute trade before the season, so things could change here in a hurry. Still, we’re quite a long way from the days of “The Padres have 3 aces!”
If I’m being blunt, this group scares the crap out of me. I am very concerned about the long-term health of King and Musgrove, who are probably the only two guys in the mix with ace potential.
I’m also concerned about the long-term viability of Buehler and Marquez, both of whom are former flame-throwers hoping for bounce-back campaigns in their 30s following major surgery. Neither has looked like the former version of themselves.
That being said, there’s a path to making this group work. Ruben Niebla is a master at this and the starters won’t have to shoulder all of the burden of getting opposing hitters out because….
Bullpen
This is an elite bullpen. This is arguably the best bullpen that the Padres have started a season with in quite some time.
Mason Miller
Adrian Morejon
Jeremiah Estrada
David Morgan
Wandy Peralta
Bradgley Rodriguez
Assuming Jason Adam returns from his quad injury quickly and without issue, the team could spend much of the season with four relievers in their bullpen that would easily compete for closing roles on other MLB teams. The guys outside of those four aren’t terrible, either.
I think one mistake Mike Shildt made last season was leaning on his bullpen so heavily that it felt like the (non-Miller) guys were running out of gas going into September and October, but that’s a problem for later. To start the season, Craig Stammen can do himself a lot of favors by having his bullpen pitch almost as many innings as the starter each game.
Variables
Oh, there’s a million variables. Where to start?
First, the team is for sale. The family of the late Peter Seidler seems reticent to spend any addition money on this year’s team, but I imagine a new owner would feel differently. That alone could change a ton about the 2026 Padres.
Second, the manager is….well, he’s a manager in name only. Craig Stammen has never been a manager before at any level. He’s familiar with (about five of) the guys in the clubhouse because he was their teammate back in 2022. I believe he’s the first relief pitcher to even hold the title of MLB manager.
This isn’t the Miami Marlins trying out a new strategy to try and find an under-the-radar (aka inexpensive) manager to lead their team, with zero expectations or real media coverage. This is the 6th highest payroll in baseball, a roster littered with superstar players on superstar contracts that have openly feuded with managers in the past, and anything short of making the playoffs will be treated as a failure and a disappointment. Good luck, Craig.
There’s also the borderline Hall of Famer who had surgery on his arm and will miss the season, who the team said would be voiding his contract and giving back the money that is owed to him before him and his agent said “Not so fast, my friend!” As far as I can tell, Yu Darvish is still around in some sort of coaching capacity but also hasn’t yet given the team back the money that they seem to need (Michael King said that he was signed because of Darvish agreeing to void his contract).
Then there’s Manny Machado’s friend Nick Castellanos, who was such a problem in the Philadelphia Phillies clubhouse that they agreed to pay him $20M to not be on their team this year. How is he going to react when he disagrees with his boss, a former relief pitcher with no experience as a manager?
Not to mention the backup catcher that, for years, has had Padres pitchers opt out of throwing to him and seemingly has a broken swing, as well. Or the starting catcher that has never been a starting catcher before last year’s trade deadline, who wore down quickly under the increased load.
And hanging over all of this is the team’s lack of a real TV contract and a potential strike that could take out the entire 2027 MLB season and eventually institute a salary cap across the league.
There are any number of things that could go very right or very wrong for the Padres in 2026 and not all of them are visible on the actual field of play.
Final thoughts
I’m not sure there has ever been a wider range of outcomes for the San Diego Padres heading into a season.
A year from now, the Padres might be owned by one of the richest owners in all of sports (basing this entirely on the rumored purchase price). They might be gloating, having proven the baseball world wrong by hiring a former middle reliever with no managerial experience to manage one of the most expensive rosters in Major League Baseball.
Maybe in a year they’re talking about how they’ve got two timelines going on, with successful veterans in their 30s (Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth, Pivetta, King) paired with rising young superstars that haven’t yet reached their peak (Tatis, Merrill, most of the bullpen).
On the other hand, maybe the sale of the team drags on and Stammen struggles to outperform (former Manager of the Year) Mike Shildt and (former 2x Manager of the Year) Bob Melvin. Maybe the Padres miss the playoffs. Maybe the team’s clubhouse is filled with chaos and drama.
Maybe it’s evident that the Padres are going to miss the playoffs in July, and the team worries about what they’ll lose in free agency. Maybe Preller spends the trade deadline shopping around the last few under-contract months of Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Jason Adam and Ramon Laureano. Maybe he sends out Mason Miller for a package of prospects to help replenish the team’s farm system. Maybe Tatis asks for a trade.
I’m not sure there’s a single baseball thing that could happen to the 2026 San Diego Padres that would surprise me. They are Schrödinger’s baseball team. That is a pretty exciting reason to watch and follow along.