An early and optimistic look at the Padres pitching
A rundown of what the San Diego Padres pitching looks like as spring training gets underway.
The San Diego Padres completely rebuilt their pitching program over the last few years. After letting Darren Balsley go and replacing him with Larry Rothschild, A.J. Preller went even further in 2021 and rebuilt his starting rotation by trading for three big arms.
None of that worked, as the Padres continued to bump into the injury bug. Is there reason to believe that they’ll be better in 2022?
The starting rotation
Yu Darvish
Blake Snell (LHP)
Joe Musgrove
Mike Clevinger
Nick Martinez*
On paper, this is a fantastic rotation. I believe each of the top four guys have received Cy Young votes at one point in their careers, which means they all have high ceilings. Whether or not they can reach those ceilings in 2022 may be up for debate.
35-year old Yu Darvish was a legit Cy Young candidate through the first-half of last season before back and hip problems derailed his production. His ERA just about doubled from the first half to the second, while his xFIP remained steady. He was giving up a lot more HRs and striking out a lot less guys. Hope he can stay healthy this year.
Blake Snell had a very strange first season in San Diego, one where he was a much better pitcher on the road than at home, although it ended in hope (with significantly better performance after the firing of Rothschild) and then injury. There’s plenty of reason to believe there’s still a great pitcher in there and that a new pitching coach could unlock it.
Joe Musgrove had a stellar first year in San Diego, including throwing the team’s first ever no-hitter, but there’s always injury concern when someone throws that many sliders. Fingers crossed he’s up for an encore.
Mike Clevinger is returning from a second major arm surgery and looking to set himself up for a big payday next offseason. He’ll either go all-out or he’ll baby the injury, and who knows what the outcome of those strategies would be for his body. We know he has the talent, but will he have the health?
Nick Martinez is the new guy here. He hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2017, and was awful then, but was fantastic in Japan. The Padres are hoping he figured something out on the other side of the Pacific and can outperform his role as the 5th starter in the rotation.
The bullpen
Pierce Johnson
Luis Garcia*
Emilio Pagan
Tim Hill (LHP)
Robert Suarez*
Austin Adams
Craig Stammen
The bullpen is a big question mark. There’s new guys, some returning guys that turned into gas cans last season, and a couple of dependable but unimpressive arms. Expect to know more about the bullpen hierarchy following Spring Training.
I am unconcerned about this group. Bullpen performance is mostly determined by manager usage, luck, and the pitching coach adjustments. The manager and the pitching coach are new, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they’ll figure it out.
X-factors
MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
Ryan Weathers (LHP)
Dinelson Lamet
Adrian Morejon (LHP)
Chris Paddack
Drew Pomeranz (LHP)
The good news, unlike last season, is that the Padres have a lot more in this x-factor group than they used to.
These six guys could all be healthy at some point this season, and they’re all talented guys. They could end up filling spots in the rotation after injuries, or they could end up eating innings out of the bullpen, but the chance of none of them contributing anything to the 2022 season is both small and haunting.
Getting something useful from this group could be the difference between the Padres making or missing the playoffs this year, so it’ll be interesting to see where they start in spring training. We should see at least MacKenzie Gore during the first game this afternoon.
Today’s game
Mariners @ Padres
First pitch: 1:10pm PDT
Stadium: Peoria Sports Complex
Gore on the bump for game 1 is fun. Looks like the team hasn’t given up on Austin Nola as a catcher just yet.
This isn’t the lineup we should expect on opening day (hopefully, Jake Cronenworth is healthy by then), but it’s not that far from it.