An Eric Hosmer trade on the horizon
Reports are coming fast and furious about a trade in the works between the Padres and Mets that would include both Eric Hosmer and Chris Paddack.
Editor’s Note: It’s not happening.
Guys, this is real. This seems like it’s happening. The San Diego Padres may have finally found someone who wants to trade for Eric Hosmer.
Okay, let’s back up and take this piece by piece while we wait to see if the deal gets completed.
Eric Hosmer
Assuming he’s not going to opt out of his contract, the San Diego Padres currently owe Eric Hosmer $59 million. In this scenario, they would be (theoretically) saving $34M over the next four years. That is pretty sweet deal for a guy that has been a replacement-level player since arriving in San Diego.
Update: It’s actually a savings of $25M and Rosenthal worded it odd the first time around. Here’s his correction:
Emilio Pagan
Speaking of guys that have been replacement-level since arriving in San Diego, I would be happy to see Pagan pitching for another team. This also opens up a spot in the bullpen for Ryan Weathers or Steven Wilson or Ray Kerr. Feel free to include Pagan in this deal.
Chris Paddack
Every previous conversation around trading Eric Hosmer came with the team including one of its “top prospects” in the deal. Chris Paddack has proven himself to be a pretty good, albeit limited, pitcher over three seasons with the Padres. What he’s not, anymore, is a top prospect.
Paddack will never be the ace he was thought to be. He is still a pitcher with 2.5 pitches and a torn UCL. Maybe he turns into something more down the line, but I don’t think Paddack’s future success will come back to bite the Padres.
I am a tiny bit concerned about what this does to the Padres’ starting pitching depth, but I’m willing to trust the process. Even if MacKenzie Gore makes the rotation, the team will be able to throw Nick Martinez and Ryan Weathers at any necessary spot starts. They’ll also have Adrian Morejon and Michel Baez on their way back from injury, and maybe Dinelson Lamet could stretch out to a starter’s role in a pinch.
Basically, I’d rather have more starting depth than less, but this is a few thousand times better than trading Gore or Robert Hassell or C.J. Abrams or Luis Campusano, so I’ll take it happily.
The fun thing here is that Paddack is the key to the whole deal. The Mets’ main motivation is to fill the hole in their rotation created by Jacob deGrom’s injury and they think Paddack is the way to do that. Hosmer moving Pete Alonso to DH (and Robinson Cano to the bench) is just a nice side effect of the deal for them.
Dominic Smith
For those that have been paying close attention for a while, this deal feels very un-Preller. He’s a GM that’s built a reputation of buying at the top of the market, not finding discounts off of down years, but here we are.
The 2019-2020 Dominic Smith is the guy Preller is hoping he’s getting in San Diego. In 139 games over those two seasons, Smith posted a slashline of .299/.366/.571 for an OPS of .937 and an OPS+ of 150. Put those numbers on the 2021 Padres and he’s the best hitter on the team not named Fernando Tatis Jr.
In 2021, he was quite a bit worse. In 145 games, his slashline was .244/.304/.363. That’s a below-average OPS+ of 84. A year ago, it would’ve cost the Padres a better prospect to get him. Now, Preller is shopping in the bargain bin and hoping that the 26-year old can find his previous success again.
Dom is definitely a better hitter than fielder, and he’s a better LF than he is a 1B, but he’s not a trainwreck at any of those spots. He’s arguably as good as current-day Hosmer at 1B and probably better than the previous plan of Jorge Alfaro playing in LF.
The rest of the lineup shakeup
I’m curious to see what this does for Matt Beaty, another left-handed LF/1B that the team traded for last week. Does the team need two of those guys?
As mentioned above, I believe this all but eliminates the idea of Jorge Alfaro making this team. If the team trusts Beaty to play RF as well as LF, it could mean that Jurickson Profar is going to be the backup IF/CF and not play in the corners, which could be a sign that C.J. Abrams will start the season in El Paso. BUT WAIT…
Most importantly, this opens up the starting 1B job. Might this be the time for Jake Cronenworth to move over there vs. RHP? That would allow Ha-Seong Kim to take over as the starting 2B (which would make more sense, given his salary) and perhaps open up starting playing time at SS for…C.J. Abrams!
I still think there’s another move coming, or more pieces to be added to this trade before it’s completed, because the team still has no good answers for backup CF and a starter who has shown a propensity for injury. The next deal will shake things up even more. Assuming this one goes through first.
yeah the more I think about this it continues to make less sense unless we’re adding another (potentially expensive?) outfielder. get Hosmer’s contract out of here, platoon DH/1B with Voit and Dom, add a real outfielder. right? right??? 😬😅
Do you remember last time rosenthal said a source confirmed?