Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Wil Myers
Will the real Wil Myers please stand up? (Or maybe this is just who he is?)
I wasn’t exactly shy about saying that I thought Wil Myers was the engine that made the impressive 2020 San Diego Padres offense run. Batting in the lower half of the lineup, he had his best offensive season as a major leaguer and put tons of pressure on opposing pitchers.
When I looked into the numbers, trying to figure out where this resurgence was coming from, I settled on the following narrative:
Everything had always come naturally to Wil Myers, but after a couple of down years (and with a new hitting coach and manager), he was ready to finally work hard on adjusting his game. As such, his batting stance changed and he became ferocious against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, where he had previously been a straight fastball hitter.
When writing about this two months ago, I even showed off this (admittedly, small sample size) graph:
I knew that green line had to come back down to earth at some point but, uh…
What I wasn’t counting on was that blue line dropping way down to near career lows. Reworked swing or not, Wil Myers has become an easy out in the last month.
Last 30 days: .220/.288/.356
I can’t express to you how terrible that is. I mean, I guess I can try. That’s why you’re here.
That would be the lowest batting average of his career, and he hasn’t been known for having a high batting average. The .356 slugging percentage is quite the drop from the .606 slugging percentage he put up last season. But the thing that concerns me the most might actually be the .288 on-base percentage.
Even when Wil has legitimately been a bad player that I’ve wanted traded away for contract relief, he has always gotten on base at a really good clip. .288 is not that, not even close.
Right now, Wil Myers can’t hit a fastball, a breaking ball, or an offspeed pitch. His xBA (expected batting average) against fastballs is .230, which is so low that it’s almost funny. His xBA against breaking balls (.178) and offspeed pitches (.201) is much worse.
There’s almost no value in Wil Myers right now. He’s not getting on base, not hitting for average, not hitting for power, and his defense stinks.
After a 2019 that set off some alarm bells, Myers really seemed to quiet everyone down with his spectacular 55-game run last year. He even got NL MVP votes! And rightfully so!
Unfortunately, it looks like that was all a mirage. Wil Myers is back to being the same guy that he was pre-pandemic and, now that Tommy Pham has found his swing (and luck), he might be the next starter whose job is on the line.
There’s a reason the team took a step forward when Brian O’Grady was playing RF and taking Wil’s spot on the lineup. Right now, he’s the better baseball player.
One possible explanation
It would be easy for me to say “ah, Wil sucks again” and leave it at that. But there might be something larger at play here.
Wil was playing good baseball, not quite at 2020 levels but definitely showing his value as a hitter and fielder, up until 30 days ago. And, while the Padres have played a lot of games without a lot of rest since then, I’m not even blaming that. I don’t think Wil is tired.
Almost exactly 30 days ago, Wil Myers tested positive for COVID-19, along with Fernando Tatis Jr. Neither player experienced symptoms, but that doesn’t mean the virus wasn’t doing some sort of damage inside of their brain and body.
Now, Tatis has been a monster since returning (OPS of 1.235 in last 30 days), but that doesn’t mean anything for how we should be looking at Wil (OPS of .644 in last 30 days). Each person reacts differently to it, and it’s possible that the mental and physical effects of it are what is really slowing down Myers lately.