Has Mark Melancon been great or lucky?
The best closer in baseball this year is the San Diego Padres' Mark Melancon. Where did this renaissance come from?
A little more than a month into The Mark Melancon Experience™, I am having a great time. I can’t remember the last time I was this confident when the bullpen door swung open and the closer jogged in. Maybe during Heath Bell’s All-Star season?
Perhaps when Fernando Rodney went half the season without giving up a run, which seems similar to the trajectory that Melancon is now on. And, actually, Rodney is not a bad comparison for what is happening with the current San Diego Padres closer in that it both makes sense and it doesn’t.
Why this makes sense
Mark Melancon, like 39-year old Fernando Rodney in 2016, has a track record of being a very good closer. You don’t rack up 200+ saves by accident, after all.
And, in his prime, Melancon was a really great closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Between 2013-2016, including a short spurt at the end with the Washington Nationals, Melancon’s ERA+ never dipped below 174 and was above 200 twice.
That is dominance, and it directly led to the 4-year, $62 million contract that he signed with the San Francisco Giants before the 2017 season. The Giants needed Melancon to replace the outgoing Sergio Romo, and he seemed primed for the spotlight of being a closer on a championship contender instead of wasting away in Pittsburgh.
What happened next is confusing and has followed around Melancon ever since. He just wasn’t very good in San Francisco. No real explaining it, either. I mean, he was good, but he wasn’t the dominant closer that he had been for the four years prior. Maybe it was the expectations of the huge contract or the new city or maybe he just hates sourdough.
After two and a half seasons of being just barely above league average, the Giants traded Mark Melancon to the Atlanta Braves (a move that required Melancon to waive his no-trade clause) for two guys that you’ve never heard of and never will.
Many baseball fans never heard of Mark Melancon before his big contract with the Giants, and the next time they heard of him he was being dumped by the same team as a disappointment at 34-years old.
He finished the 2019 season the same guy, posting a 3.86 ERA with the Braves, but his 1.83 FIP was a career best. Was he due for a bounce back to dominance? In 2020, his ERA+ bounced back up to 177, a number he hadn’t come close to since signing with the Giants. His 2.78 ERA was also lower than anything that he had done since his Pirates/Nationals days, and he racked up 11 saves in the shortened season.
So, yes. If you’ve been following Mark Melancon’s career, you could make an argument that he’s always been this good and just hates the San Francisco Giants. And, honestly, I’m okay with that.
Why this (maybe) doesn’t make sense
Remember how I italicized the fact that Melancon had posted an ERA+ over 200 twice? It’s because it’s a big deal! His current ERA+ is 627. That’s impossible.
While there were signs that he was rounding back into form in 2020, Melancon is currently putting up numbers that even he hasn’t touched. A 0.60 ERA and a 1.43 FIP probably makes this one of the best months of Melancon’s career, which is long because he’s 36-years old. (Editor’s note: I am also 36-years old, so I promise I’m not making jokes.)
Now, pitchers don’t typically have the best month of their career at 36-years old. If it happens, it is usually a sign that they have made a drastic change to their game (new pitch, boost in velocity, dramatic shift in spin rate, etc.) that we can see. With “The Shark”, it’s less about adding to his game and more about taking away.
Notice anything? Mark has basically turned himself into a two-pitch pitcher, down from a five-pitch pitcher in 2010. Getting rid of the sinker correlated to his previous dominance, and the improved performance of late can be tied to him getting rid of his 4-seam fastball.
This actually does make sense. His 4-seam fastball got hit a lot.
In 2020, he threw 9 fastballs. Batters hit .667 off of it.
In 2019, he threw 72 fastballs. Batters hit .333 off of it.
In 2018, he threw 94 fastballs. Batters hit .478 off of it.
In 2017, he threw 67 fastballs. Batters hit .500 off of it.
You get the idea. His cutter has always been his main pitch, and remains so, but now Melancon is throwing more curveballs and less of everything else.
Guess that’s it. He’s cracked it and he’s great forever now, right? Well, not exactly.
Mark Melancon has basically stopped throwing his curveball for strikes this year. That’s another adjustment he has seemingly made. Take a look.
Despite this, his walk rate is way down compared to years past. This location also probably explains why batters are hitting .000 against his curve so far in 2021.
I would love to see the tunneling of his cutter and curveball, because it appears that all a batter would need to do is to identify the curveball and lay off it to have more success against “The Shark”. this season After all, batters have historically hit his cutter well (.194 so far this year).
So, there it is. The 36-year old working on a 1-year $3 million contract, who wasn’t thought of as the leader to be the team’s closer this season, has turned himself into a two-pitch pitcher who only throws one of those pitches for strikes and can’t get hit. It makes no sense! But, that’s baseball. Just because it doesn’t make sense doesn’t mean it will stop anytime soon. It also could! Baseball is stupid™.