Instant Coffee: Let's give this a shot
While I have the time to do so, I'm going to try knocking off the rust from my writing by doing regular posts about the Padres.
Hello! If you are reading this, there’s a very good chance that this is not the first thing that I’ve written that you have read. In fact, most people know me as the guy that used to churn out multiple articles per day about the San Diego Chargers when such a team still existed.
I drifted off into the world of talk radio/podcasting since then, and I don’t write nearly as much as I used to or probably should. So, while I have the time to do so, I’ve decided to dedicate this substack to spilling out my thoughts about the San Diego Padres and knocking off whatever rust I have on my writing in the process.
Without further ado….
Spring Training (little) Concern #1: Ha-seong Kim
Immediately following the news that the Padres had signed KBO superstar Ha-seong Kim to a 4-year deal worth $28 million in guaranteed money, just about every follower of the team rejoiced.
Gone were the questions about whether Jake Cronenworth’s short season, where he was a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender, was a fluke. The infield now had 3 players that could be expected to be great on offense and defense, plus whatever the team could get from Eric Hosmer and Austin Nola, right?
Well, maybe not. While some scouts were very confident that Kim would figure out MLB pitchers because “baseball is baseball,” others were concerned about the drastic difference and wondered if he’d ever learn how to hit a 95+mph fastball with movement. So far, it’s been more of the latter than the former.
With a slash line of .103/.212/.103 and a week left before opening day, the only hope the Padres have is that Kim will eventually figure it out. What’s for sure is that he hasn’t figured it out yet, and the offensive part of his game is nowhere to be found.
The team has not been afraid to use Kim as a super-utility player, putting him just about everywhere in the infield and now giving him chances in the outfield. It’s obvious that they’re trying to find value in him, and a reason to keep him with the MLB team, but doing so at this point would only work to hurt the team (and maybe his development).
The big question surrounds Kim’s contract. He publicly stated that he signed with the Padres over other teams because the Padres promised him playing time and he wanted to be a part of this 2021 team. Did they promise that he wouldn’t spend any time in El Paso? Or just that he would get a shot in San Diego? We’re probably about to find out.
Spring Training (bigger) Concern #2: Jurickson Profar
Alright, let’s start with the bad and make our way back to the optimistic.
Profar’s slash line with a week left in spring training is: .032/.231/.263
Those are the types of numbers a pitcher puts up while attempting to hit. Not even one of the pitchers that can kind of hit, the type of pitchers that have never hit and don’t want to hit and can’t hit. Relief pitchers! In fact, those numbers are probably even worse than that.
The saying around exhibition seasons, like spring training or NBA Summer League or the NFL preseason, is that it doesn’t matter much if you’re good but it could matter if you’re bad. Especially if you’re really bad, and even more so if you’re really bad without a good explanation (new team, new swing, new coach, etc.). That might be where Profar is at right now.
I was trying to talk myself into these numbers not having any meaning, so I went back through the last few Padres’ spring training seasons to find someone that met these similar criteria:
Expected to make MLB roster
At least 25 ABs (Profar currently has 31)
OPS under .400 (Profar currently sits at .263)
What I found wasn’t pretty. Actually, what I found wasn’t much! Here’s the list:
Allen Craig (2018) - .393 OPS
Javy Guerra (2019) - .390 OPS
Ha-seong Kim (2021) - .316 OPS
That’s it! A guy that was clearly done being an MLB-level player (the last time Craig appeared in an MLB game was 2015 and he somehow posted a -0.9 WAR in just 36 games), a guy that was so bad on offense they immediately converted him to a pitcher, and the aforementioned Kim (who has never seen this level of pitcher before).
The fact that I can’t find a comp for Profar feels particularly ominous to me. The closest I could come was Francisco Mejia in last year’s shortened spring training, where he failed to get a hit in 15 ABs and finished with an OPS of .200.
Mejia got 42 more plate appearances during the season and managed to put up an OPS of .322 before being benched and traded. For comparison, Hedges finished 2020 with an OPS of .521, which is bad but also worlds better than Mejia.
Why it matters
Jurickson Profar is the backup for most positions for the Padres, assuming Kim starts the year in the minors. He’s the fourth outfielder and would also be called on to be a starter (again) if Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth or Hosmer were to miss any time.
If the National League really does play this season without a designated hitter, having someone scuffling this badly would create a giant hole in the lineup (8 + 9) that would allow opposing pitchers to pitch around the stars to get out of trouble.
Oh, and Profar is on the worst kind of contract if his performance happens falls off a cliff (which it shouldn’t!). He signed for what amounts to a 1-year deal for $5.5 million if he’s good and could be a 3-year deal for $21 million if he’s not (thanks to player options). Between him and Kim, there’s about $50 million on the line for the Padres to figure out why they’re slumping at the dish.
Why it shouldn’t
For one, there’s still a week left of spring training games. With sample sizes as small as they are, a good week of hitting could erase all of these bad stats from Profar (and Kim!).
For two, Profar is a notoriously slow starter.
This should keep Profar, and the Padres, from freaking out too much. This is just a part of his process, it would appear.
Also, if you dig into his numbers, it’s easy to figure out how Profar approaches hitting and why it might not work as well in spring training…
Was this predictable?
Profar is a fastball hitter. In fact, it’s just about the only pitch he hits for a good average or with any sort of pop. This is why it’s particularly important that he stretch out at-bats and work the count the way he does: he needs to get the pitcher into a fastball count.
The thing about spring training is that most pitchers don’t really care about the count, or even really their performance, they’re just working on their stuff and command to get ready for the season. That means you get a lot more breaking balls and offspeed stuff than you would in an MLB game, and that getting into a fastball count doesn’t necessarily mean a fastball is coming.
That being said, let’s have one last look at some spring training stats…
Profar (2021): .032/.231/.263
Profar (2020): .217/.308/.391
Profar (2019): .220/.304/.415
Profar (2018): .246/.271/.368
Uh oh.