Is it Jorge Alfaro time?

The San Diego Padres are liking what they're seeing from the newest catcher on the team, so much that they are talking about him potentially being a starter in left field.

I’m a big believer in the following common phrase:

“When someone shows you who they are, believe them.”

Right now, amongst Padres fans that have grown tired of complaining about the team’s gaping hole in left field, there are some positive rumblings about Jorge Alfaro.

Before we get there, let’s figure out how Alfaro got here.

The path to San Diego

This story starts with A.J. Preller’s time with the Texas Rangers, as most of these stories do. Preller was part of a front office that signed a teenage Alfaro out of Columbia in 2010.

After five inconsistent years in the minors with the Rangers, Alfaro was traded to the Phillies as part of a package that brought Cole Hamels to Texas.

Alfaro made his MLB debut with the Phillies, playing parts of three major-league seasons and proving himself to be a solid defensive catcher (although he has historically struggled with blocking balls in the dirt, for whatever that is worth) with some potential at the plate. I’m not joking when I say that you can find Philadelphia analysts that compared Alfaro to a young Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez without looking very hard.

It was around this time that the Phillies wanted to trade for J.T. Realmuto as their everyday catcher, so they included Alfaro in a package back to the Marlins to take Realmuto’s spot as the starter in Miami.

After struggling the last two seasons, the Marlins were ready to move on. A.J. Preller, never one to give up on a prospect, swooped in with an offer of cash or a PTBNL in exchange for Alfaro in a trade.

Why?

Why did Preller, who already had Austin Nola and Victor Caratini and Luis Campusano on the roster, add another catcher to the mix?

Well, depends on who you ask.

With Nola’s health and Campusano’s development being question marks, it sounds like Preller wanted a three-headed catching solution that could possibly bleed into the DH spot as well (before Luke Voit arrived, anyway). As soon as the trade for Alfaro happened, Preller was rumored to be shopping at least one of the Padres catchers in trade.

(Side note: In the list of things we know about A.J. Preller, I think we can safely add that he desperately wants a catcher that can also hit.)

However, now that the Padres have repeatedly struck out on options in LF, Alfaro is being shopped a potential solution there. He did play 21 games in LF for the Marlins last year, after all.

What changed?

Jorge Alfaro holds a career OPS of .707, but that’s boosted by a couple of early seasons with the Phillies. His OPS the last two seasons was .624 and .625. That would’ve made him worse offensively than both Webster Rivas and Victor Caratini last year.

But, and this is where you can have a little fun dreaming, his statcast numbers show why teams have been reluctant to give up on his offense.

See those red highlights around the Exit Velocity numbers? That means that, in those seasons, Alfaro posted some of the highest exit velocity numbers in all of MLB.

And the downturn in his offense from league-average to bad also coincides with his launch angle dropping off a cliff, so either he’s in the process of changing his swing or he’s changed it and needs to change it back. Neither is a sure thing, but I’m starting to understand why someone might believe in Jorge Alfaro.

But, if you see those blue boxes on the right, you’ll see that Alfaro is one of the worst players in the league at striking out (he does it a lot) and walking (which he rarely does at all). This makes what he’s doing in spring training unsurprising. When pitchers are just trying to stretch their arms out and throw strikes, nobody is going to eat more than the guy who doesn’t know the difference between a strike and a ball.

If, and it’s an if the size of Coronado, Alfaro can be a little bit more patient at the plate, there’s reason to believe he could be a good enough hitter to not be a negative contributor to the every day lineup.

But I tend to believe people when they tell me who they are. And I tend to believe that what we’ve seen from Jorge Alfaro is just who he’s going to be.

Also, I don’t think his ceiling is much higher than that of an average starting catcher. As a left fielder, where his + defense as a catcher wouldn’t mean a thing, his ceiling is probably less than that. I hope the Padres are still looking for a true outfielder (assuming any are left).