Is the Tommy Pham breakout coming?
Tommy Pham punished a fastball for a HR in the Padres' 5-3 loss to the Brewers on Monday. Is it a sign of things to come?
As you may or may not be aware, there is a certain segment of San Diego Padres fans that have been watching Tommy Pham’s advanced metrics early on in this season and expecting a breakout at some point. (I used to be one of them.)
And, it’s true, Pham’s still barreling balls at a high rate and hitting the ball hard most of the time. That is a sign that he’s been unlucky, but his xBA (expected batting average) and xSLG (expected slugging) should tell you that he’s not hitting the ball far enough, even if he has been hitting it hard enough.
I started giving up on Pham a couple of weeks ago after realizing that he couldn’t catch up to a fastball anymore. Maybe it was the new baseball, maybe he’s still recovering from being stabbed in the offseason, or maybe he’s just lost a step. But, one thing was very obvious: he was struggling to hit fastballs even more than Ha-Seong Kim, who had never seen an MLB fastball before this year.
After looking up the numbers, my eyes weren’t lying to me. Let’s look at his xBA/xwOBA/xSLG as though they’re a real slash line, and let’s focus in on what he’s averaging against fastballs only:
2021: .252/.363/.466
2020: .252/.352/.426
2019: .292/.377/.493
2018: .299/.393/.512
2017: .305/.409/.516
2016: .220/.339/.426
2015: .313/.408/.545
That’s three seasons (2021, 2020, 2016) where Pham has really struggled to hit fastballs, even when you take luck out of the equation, and four seasons when he was really good at it.
Unsurprisingly, Pham’s career has lined up similarly. He’s been a good hitter in those four seasons and a bad hitter in those three. A lot of baseball really does break down to if you can consistently hit fastballs to where the fielders aren’t. That’s exactly why this big HR caught my eye yesterday:
Pham’s only other home run came off a very slow hanging curveball from Adam Wainwright, just a veteran taking advantage of a mistake pitch, that didn’t assuage my fears about his inability to hit the fastball. But this one feels (a little) better.
I’ll still have my concerns about whether Pham can hit a real MLB fastball, the 95+mph kind that more than half the pitchers around the league seem to throw now, but the fact that he could punish a 92mph fastball is at least a sign of improvement. And the fact that he’s hit this poorly before and bounced back is a good sign, as well.
With games coming up in the hitter-friendly ballparks in Milwaukee, Houston, and Chicago (Wrigley Field), Pham should have a chance to improve on his power numbers and try to turn this season around.
And, actually, that’s a good time to pause and get some perspective. The Padres really need Tommy Pham to be good enough to be in the starting lineup this year, and…he has been?
I know, that’s an insane thing to say for a guy that is hitting .195 without power, but Pham’s 0.2 fWAR should tell you that he’s at least slightly better than a replacement level player. Not what you’re hoping for from him but not terrible either, mostly due to the career-high 17% walk rate he’s currently posting.
I’m not sure that I believe Pham is ready turn this season around, I need to see him connect on a few high-velo fastballs before I’ll jump on that train, but I appreciate that he’s doing everything he can to make himself a valuable player in other ways while trying to figure it out.