Is this enough?
Pretending to know what the Padres are planning and then evaluating that imaginary roster because it's almost time for Spring Training.
I know there’s a lot going on right now but I feel like it’s worth it to make this sentence stand out because it was surprising to me and might be to you:
Pitchers and catchers reporter to Spring Training in two weeks!
In some cases, it’s even a day or two short of two weeks. This year’s Spring Training is going to be a bit of a clusterfuck because of the players coming in and out around playing in the World Baseball Classic (and trying to build a team that has some that are doing that and some that aren’t).
Still, I feel like I can dig through the rumors and come up with a general idea of what type of roster we might be looking at for the San Diego Padres once the season starts….partially because I don’t think A.J. Preller has the capital (financial or otherwise) to pull off a big trade between now and then.
So, let’s look at what I think will happen (and not talk about money) and then we’ll do a quick overview of the team.
“A drive into deep left field by Castellanos”
Ken Rosenthal’s been pushing this one hard, and with good reason. The Padres need another 1B/DH bat and the Philadelphia Phillies seem eager to part ways with Nick Castellanos.
Now, Castellanos has never actually played first base, so I have issues with this move. That being said, if the Padres can add a hitter of this caliber without giving up much of anything, they’d be fools to not jump at it.
I think the Padres and Phillies are desperate enough in parallel directions for this to work for both sides. Plus, then we’d get to use this meme all the time:
It’s good to have options
The San Diego Padres also need a starting pitcher. Nothing against Randy Vasquez and JP Sears, but the team would be better off having at least one of them as depth to come in when an injury befalls Joe Musgrove (returning from injury) or Michael King (returning from injury).
The market has shaken out to the point where A.J. Preller’s options are pretty obvious. Notice I said options and not option.
On the high end, there’s Framber Valdez. I think he’s outside of the Padres price range.
Names we’ve heard connected to the Padres include fan-favorite Nick Martinez, Lucas Giolito, and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander.
Also out there as free agent starting pitchers: Nestor Cortes, Max Scherzer (Hey, remember the day when the Padres traded for Max Scherzer and then they didn’t?), Chris Bassitt and others.
I’m going to try and simplify this, because there’s no good reason to get complicated with it, and say that the team will land on one of these two guys:
Nick Martinez
Chris Bassitt
They’re about the same age (Bassitt is a year older) with similar-ish track records and similar market value. Martinez is someone we know works well in San Diego and can slide into a bullpen role (if needed), but Bassitt probably has higher upside as a starter. I’m fine with either.
What’s left?
Alright, quick walk-through of the roster with Castellanos and flips coin Nick Martinez added to it.
STARTING ROTATION
Michael King
Nick Pivetta
Joe Musgrove
Nick Martinez
Randy Vasquez
BULLPEN
Mason Miller
Adrian Morejon
Jason Adam
Jeremiah Estrada
David Morgan
Wandy Peralta
Bradgley Rodriguez
Yuki Matsui
LINEUP
RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
CF Jackson Merrill
3B Manny Machado
LF Ramon Laureano
DH Nick Castellanos
1B Gavin Sheets
SS Xander Bogaerts
2B Jake Cronenworth
C Freddy Fermin
BENCH
Luis Campusano
Mason McCoy
Will Wagner
Bryce Johnson
Okay, here are my thoughts….
If the starting rotation stays healthy…
If the bullpen stays healthy…
If Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have career years…
If Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets are at least as good as they were last year…
Then this is probably a playoff team, but they’re probably not good enough to beat the Dodgers (or the Braves) in a long series.
And that’s a lot of ifs.
This is why “Keep the faith” isn’t just a motto for Padres fans, it’s a way of life. We’re here because we are willing to believe that the (nearly) impossible could actually happen. And we’ll be here to celebrate it when it does, just like we’ll be here to mourn this team if it doesn’t. And there’s always giveaways to remember it by:
But, at the very least, soon we’ll be having conversations about (spring training) baseball actually being played instead of theoretical discussions about roster construction. I can’t wait.