MAILBAG: The Dodgers don't care about the Padres

The Padres play the Dodgers more than any other team in the final month of the season. Is that a good or bad thing?

The San Diego Padres have played 132 of 162 games so far this season, leaving them with just 30 before the start of the MLB playoffs. They are currently 14 games above .500 and battling with the Milwaukee Brewers for the final wild card spot.

Here are the matchups the Padres have left this season, ranked by number of games:

• 9 games vs. Dodgers

• 7 games vs. Diamondbacks

• 3 games vs. Giants

• 3 games vs. Rockies

• 3 games vs. Cardinals

• 3 games vs. White Sox

• 2 games vs. Mariners

All of this is to say that how the Padres perform against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks over the next month will probably determine if they make the playoffs this year.

The Dodgers have the best record in baseball (and are so far ahead of other teams that they will undoubtedly finish with the best record in baseball) and are not at risk of losing the NL West. They, essentially, have no reason to try hard when playing against the Padres in these final 9 games.

My guess is that Dave Roberts’ #1 priority through these last 30 games is going to be keeping his team rested and healthy for the playoffs. That could be something that the Padres could take advantage of.

Let’s dive into the mailbag!

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According to Fangraphs, the Padres project to be $200k over the CBT line. It would seem to be criminal mismanagement to go over by that much, if only because they wouldn’t get the benefit of re-setting penalties for future years. What is your sense for how important it should be to find a way to shave off that $200k? It seems the only way to do it is to cut non-guaranteed contracts or keep a guaranteed contract on the roster over calling someone up from the minors (Jose Castillo?)…which could be a bad thing when it comes to winning games.

Unlike earlier this season, I’ve stopped worrying about the CBT. The team is going to go over it, by a lot and repeatedly, if they have any hope of signing Juan Soto to a long-term contract. Therefore, I’m just going to assume the team is going to be over it for a long time.

That being said, if the team wants to make some sort of wacky roster move this year to try and save themselves a few million down the line, I won’t judge them for it.

Can you break down what the Pads' payroll and luxury tax sitch will be if we extend Soto and sign a 1B?

Maybe I’ll do a deep dive on this next week. It’s a lot more complicated than you’re making it out to be here. Here’s where the Padres are right now:

Just with current contracts, the Padres are about $70M shy of the CBT. The only team that has more on the books for 2023 right now is the New York Mets.

I believe that total number does not include anyone who is arbitration-eligible (such as Juan Soto, who will probably make about $30M next year) and doesn’t include any money the team will need to replace these free agents:

• Wil Myers (will not have his team option picked up)

• Josh Bell

• Sean Manaea

• Mike Clevinger

• Brandon Drury

• Jurickson Profar (likely to turn down his player option)

• Nick Martinez (likely to turn down his player option)

So, let’s assume Soto accounts for $30M next season and the team wants to stay under the CBT. That would give them $40M to sign…

• A starting LF

• A starting 1B

• A starting DH

• Two starting pitchers

• Bench players/bullpen arms

Oh, and we haven’t even dug into all of the other guys that will be getting raises through arbitration:

• Josh Hader

• Jorge Alfaro

• Tim Hill

• Jake Cronenworth

• Trent Grisham

• Austin Nola

• Adrian Morejon

And, since the team emptied out the prospect cupboards to trade for Hader/Soto/Bell/Drury, it’s not like they can just let these guys walk and replace them with young/team controlled players.

The chances of the team managing to be below the CBT next year, or even fielding a different team, are very small.

Was happy to see Hader get a save and look pretty good doing it. Still, that was terrifying. But I hear a lot of people say they have to get him right to go deep in Oct. But do they? Martinez had been servicing and could even use arms like Manea and Clev or if the bullpen in Oct. It's Sept, do we have time to "get Hader right" and should they even bother?

It’s September, Hader might already be 90% right and trending better, and yes…they should bother. Nick Martinez has been fine, but Josh Hader has been the best closer in baseball for years. There’s a difference.

Also, I don’t think Manaea out of the bullpen is the salve you think it is. That guy flat can’t pitch right now. You really want him coming into a stressful playoff game to try and get guys out?

If the Padres are going to make a run to the World Series, they’re going to need some really important innings pitched by Josh Hader. The good news is that pitching coach Ruben Niebla has been monitoring Hader’s progress and thinks he’s nearly right.

Padres have the second lowest swing rate since 2020. Am I irrationally positive to think the approach is fine if you add slug, as we did, and success will continue with Soto/Nando for much of 23’? Supplement the core three in Nando, Soto and Manny with low swing and miss guys in Pro/Grish/Crone and we’re good to go.

Starting to see the effects with Bell, Drury now.

I think you’ve got it right. Get on base, don’t strike out, and have a few boppers in the middle of the lineup. The issue going forward is that Bell and Drury are free agents, as are Myers and Profar, so the team will have limited resources to try and find this specific type of player that is already in high demand.

I've been thinking about the Kim vs Crone vs Tatis argument and I tend to think the solution lies with that Minnesota has done with another superstar (but injury inclined) in Buxton, which is a combination of CF and DH. I think Tatis would have to come in, next year, predisposed to play SS, CF and alot of DH (maybe best way to keep him fresh in the short term). The Twins rotate their DH and CF based on what they do with Buxton first, so something like that would be prudent by SD, especially since they have the players to do so and that could also partially solve DH and keep Kim and Crone pretty much as regulars.

In such case, the only thing missing would be a lefty power bat to complement DH the days Tatis plays SS or CF, and either Kim or Crone is at 2B and Grish(?) is at CF.

That’s one way to do it. We’ll have a better idea of what the team wants to do with Tatis once we see what they do in the offseason / free agency. If they go out of their way to sign a CF, that could be a sign that Kim or Cronenworth is going to be traded.

I do want to take a second here to say how wrong I was, for decades, about the DH. It is a blessing. I am so glad I don’t have to watch pitchers end rally after rally in NL games, and it creates a soft landing spot for guys like Tatis (coming back from injury) or guys that need a day of rest but are too hot to come out of the lineup (like Machado).

Are the Brewers or Phillies scarier to the Padres right now? Who should Padres fans be more worried about usurping our playoff spot?

Well, the Phillies have the 2nd wild card spot and the Brewers are out, right now. So, if anyone is “usurping” a spot, it would be the Brewers.

That being said, just comparing the teams, the Brewers are the weakest. They have a shaky bullpen, a popgun offense and an incomplete starting rotation. The Phillies have a run differential more than twice as high as Brewers and nearly twice as high as the Padres, they’re a serious team and they have done a lot of this impressive work without their best player (Bryce Harper, who returned this week).

I completely forgot about the expanded playoff so to ask a better question:
San Diego Philly and Milwaukee are all within 3 games of each other which two do you think make it in?

I’m assuming it’s going to be Braves-Phillies-Padres, just like it’s lined up right now.

Are you, like me, feeling more confident about this team's trajectory in the playoff picture during the final month of the regular season compared to this time last year? All the circumstances that did the team in at the end of 2021, from the lack of starting pitchers to all the clubhouse dysfunction to an inexperienced manager who lacked the necessary knowhow to respond to the collapse of the players' psyche, are mostly absent now, making it easier to feel optimistic about where the Padres are headed. And the team appears to respond to bouts of adversity much better than last year's team, such as the Tatis suspension and Hader's initial struggles in his first month as a Padre. The new manager and S rank trade deadline acquisitions, among other things, are really making a major difference this year compared to last.

Yeah, you hit on a couple of key points there.

Last year’s collapse happened partially because the team didn’t really add any help at the deadline. This year’s team added Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury. That’s going to help.

Bob Melvin has had maybe his most challenging season as an MLB manager but the team has done a good job of bouncing back from adversity (I think the team sweeping the Giants after getting embarrassed on their way out of Kansas City was a low-key big deal).

The starting rotation is good, and deep enough for a really good playoff rotation. The bullpen has been okay-to-good and seems to be getting stronger, especially if Hader is finding his old form. The lineup is talented enough to score 4+ runs per night, which usually leads to them winning about 80% of the games.

I am optimistic about this team making the playoffs and winning at least a series in the playoffs, yes. They have the firepower to do so.