MAILBAG: Time to worry?

The mailbag is open and almost every question asked shows just how worried San Diego Padres fans are about the rest of this season (and beyond).

It’s our first mailbag in a few weeks! I only got a handful of questions, and you can probably guess that they’re fairly doom-and-gloom, so allow me to very briefly highlight Jake Cronenworth’s grand slam yesterday before we get into it:

San Diego Padres@Padres

Crone Zone 🤝 Slam Diego #TimeToShine

8:30 PM · Aug 17, 2022

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298 Reposts · 2.02K Likes

After that grand slam, Mark Grant said “They needed that. Jake needed that but the whole team really needed that".” As much as Mud plays the role of a clown on the air, I never forget that he’s one of them. He’s a former major league ballplayer that had more than a cup of coffee. There’s no way he doesn’t regularly chat with guys in the clubhouse.

I think, since the trade deadline, this Padres team has been pressing. They were pressing to live up to the expectations created. Or maybe just to live up to that first inning when Soto/Bell/Drury finally joined the offense. Pressing to try and match up with the Dodgers. Pressing to give Soto and Bell a good homecoming in Washington. Pressing to show that they really don’t need Fernando Tatis. And now they’re pressing to take care of lesser opponents.

I don’t know what is going to get this team rolling, but I feel like they have a really good stretch in them that we haven’t seen yet. Maybe Crone’s grand slam (and Kim’s 4-RBI day) get it started. I guess we’ll see.

When do I get to be concerned?

Whenever you would like! That’s the beauty of sports. Nobody can tell you when you should or shouldn’t be afraid of your team crashing and burning. Some Padres fans are concerned before the season starts. Some never are. Salt to taste, my friend.

Does the Tatis Jr news change the way that the Padres Front Office approaches Juan Soto for a contract extension? Does it change the outlook on Manny's opt out? The biggest thing that I have taken away is that the Padres may have signed a player that the rest of the locker room actively doesn't like for the next decade plus.

Ooooookay, I’m probably about to piss a lot of people off.

If anything, this Tatis news should make the team more eager to sign Juan Soto to a contract extension. The one they signed to Tatis, which felt like it was going to keep the team good and playoff-relevant for the next 14 years, is starting to look like….it might not. The good news here is that they have a backup 23-year old superstar.

If the Padres sign Soto to a long-term contract, then the Tatis contract can become the worst one ever signed in baseball history and….they’ll probably still be a good team.

That’s not the part that’s going to make people angry. It’s this take, which I’ve had for a while and I’ve been sitting on….

It might be best, or better, for the San Diego Padres if Manny Machado opts out of that contract. For those that don’t know, Manny signed a 10-year $300M contract with the Padres that is actually structured like two 5-year, $150M contracts. He has an opportunity, after next season, to kill the second part of the deal and become a free agent, if he wants.

I know he’s playing hurt, but Manny’s 2022 season isn’t all sunshine and rainbows. He’s posting the highest K% of his career. His .349 BABIP is the highest of his career by a mile or more. His hard hit % is the lowest it’s been since 2015.

The weird thing about Manny Machado is that he might not be worth $30M per season anymore, and almost assuredly wouldn’t be once he gets into his 30s, but the free agent market would probably pay him more than that. If you’re looking for the Padres payroll to be affected by the selfish actions of Fernando Tatis Jr., the guy you should be worrying about is Machado and not Soto.

Don’t forget that a big reason Machado came to San Diego was to play with Tatis. Now, he and most of the locker room seem done with the kid. I know Manny is the leader of the team, but he’s also a businessman. There’s a chance he asks the Padres for more money and, because they have cash tied to a grenade in the form of Tatis, they say no.

Can Melvin be considered too stubborn or "reactive"? We already know about his bullpen management: starters staying out too long, using relievers with recent bad performances or splits (ex. Rogers vs DET and recently Garcia vs. MIA on Tuesday) instead of using the reliever with "hot hand" like Nick Martinez (no runs allowed in last 8 IP).
Are we starting to see this with the offense too? Drury has been swinging well (robbed of XBHs in the past week or so) yet Bell is firmly in the 4th stop and going 0-4 every game.

For some reason, I still feel like it’s too early to make judgements on Bob Melvin. I’m not sure why. His Padres tenure isn’t off to a great start, the team has had a lot of down moments this year….and yet, they’re squarely in a position to make the playoffs despite all of that.

He leaves starters in too long, but the Padres starters are ranked top 10 in ERA and WHIP. He gives relievers a chance to right their wrongs instead of riding the hot hand, but the bullpen is also top 10 in ERA and WHIP.

I think I haven’t quite figured out Bob Melvin’s style yet, and I feel unable to criticize it until it is proven to have worse results than what we got from the Andy Greens and Jayce Tinglers and Buddy Blacks of the world. But, I will say that I understand the frustrations with it and am a little concerned. (There’s also a voice in my brain that reminds me the Padres haven’t finished above .500 in a full season since 2010 and that I need to accept progress as being linear and slow.)

That being said, and to address your criticism above that you sent in before yesterday’s game, he might be showing signs of understanding.

Since the trade deadline, the lineup had been almost identical every day:

Profar
Soto
Machado
Bell
Drury
Cronenworth
Grisham
Kim
Nola/Alfaro

Go ahead and check it. Just about every game between the trade deadline and now has been that, with some guys switching positions and DH jumping around to give guys a half-day off.

Last night, he moved Drury up to 4 and Bell down to 5. Everything else stayed the same. That is a sign that he’s not blind, he’s seen how bad Bell has been, and he’s wondering if moving Bell further away from Soto and Bell might help the offense score more runs.

As much as some of us are perhaps fearing a second straight collapse right now, all the signs that alluded to it last year- inexperienced manager, not enough starting pitchers, dysfunctional clubhouse, underwhelming trade deadline, etc.- aren't really there anymore this year. Do you think we still have enough to avoid another collapse and secure a postseason spot this time around? I'm pretty confident that the unease we are going through right now is just a sign of a new-look roster still trying to sort itself out over the two weeks since the trade deadline, and that eventually its talent level will truly show down the stretch and propel us to our first 162-game season playoff berth since 2006, despite a rather difficult September schedule on the horizon.

Sure, anything is possible.

The 2021 Padres went 12-14 in the month in July and that’s nothing compared to the 2022 Padres who went…..oh, crap. They went 11-14 in July.

But! The 2021 Padres went 11-15 in August and that’s when things really went sideways for them, while the 2022 Padres are still 9-8 in the month of August. It doesn’t mean the collapse is over, they could easily finish with a similarly poor monthly split this year to what they had last year, but we’re not at the same place. Not yet.

Here’s the thing: You can either spend the next two months worrying about a collapse and shaking at every sign that the wheels might be getting wobbly, or you can spend them trying to enjoy the team for what it is and hoping for playoff games where anything can happen with this level of talent in the lineup and rotation and bullpen.

I’m going to try and keep my focus on optimism. Or, at least, I’m going to try and keep it away from pessimism. Let’s see if I’m successful.