Reasonable people can disagree of course. So, being reasonable, I’ll disagree with your take…to an extent.
First of all, you’ve left Morejon off the roster and I believe they can keep 26 on the active roster. Morejon makes the roster significantly better.
Yes, the four vet signings are lottery tickets. But they are different, especially the hitters. My take- based on memory only, not an exhaustive analysis- is that the bets on Andjuar and Nicky C are better bets than prior ones like Carpenter and Cruz, let alone Heyward, Joe, etc.
Nick and Miguel are just coming off their primes, not way past it. They had a modicum of success recently at least in certain situations (i.e., vs LHP) that have been weak spots for the Padres.
They are cheap. (Cough, Matt Carpenter, cough.)
Lots rides on health and effectiveness of the top 3 pitchers for sure. And of course, FTJ, JM, MM, and X need to have good to great years.
I posit that the bets made on the fringe roster spots (Nick, Andujar, Moon) this year are better than last year’s by a wide margin.
As for the pitchers, at least Canning and Marquez have had some success in the past and, depending upon their contract, seem like reasonable lottery tickets. Certainly better than Kyle Hart and others.
This team is better in Opening Day than they were on Opening Day in 2025…on paper.
Left field, catcher, DH, and closer all better in 2026. Good case that 1B will be better too.
Better bullpen depth (Morgan + Rodriguez replace Omar Cruz and Alex Jacob) and have some other guys too (Acosta, Adcock, Marinaccio) for depth.
2025 OD: Heyward, Gurriel, Iglesias, Lockridge, Maldonado, Sheets. So awful.
Only question in my mind is starting pitching. But remember, it was King, Cease, hoping for good things from Pivetta, Vasquez and Hart.
Now it’s King, Pivetta, hoping for good things from Joe M, and some combo of Vasquez, Canning, Marquez, McKenzie, Gonzalez, and Hart.
No room for injury at the top end but some decent depth for the 4-5 spots.
2025 had a higher ceiling but once King was injured, Yu never really made it back, and Cease struggled with inconsistency, the starting pitching was anchored by Pivetta…and Vasquez. Vasquez was the 2 or 3 in the rotation.
And here’s the elephant in the room. Hopefully Stammen won’t manage like Shildt when it comes to bunting and lineup construction (Arraez, grrr). That could be worth a win or two on its own.
Now the team won’t be adding like they did at the deadline since they don’t appear to have assets to do it. So, the end of year roster comparison might be very different.
Net / Net: I agree, it’s likely not a World Series team. It would require catching lightning in a bottle, multiple times. But it’s a better team than 2025, at least on Opening Day.
This is pretty accurate to me. I like this lineup and I hope Merrill stays healthy. When he got hurt last year we had a big drop off.
We don't have the Dodgers SP’ing no doubt. But the staff just has to beat most the other staffs and it could. Anything can happen in the playoffs and this team should be good enough to get there again. I don’t think the bullpen is top heavy except for the very top guy. He’s better than everyone on all teams outta the pen. If X can be 2nd half X, maybe things could gel! Ya nevah know!
Reasonable people can disagree of course. So, being reasonable, I’ll disagree with your take…to an extent.
First of all, you’ve left Morejon off the roster and I believe they can keep 26 on the active roster. Morejon makes the roster significantly better.
Yes, the four vet signings are lottery tickets. But they are different, especially the hitters. My take- based on memory only, not an exhaustive analysis- is that the bets on Andjuar and Nicky C are better bets than prior ones like Carpenter and Cruz, let alone Heyward, Joe, etc.
Nick and Miguel are just coming off their primes, not way past it. They had a modicum of success recently at least in certain situations (i.e., vs LHP) that have been weak spots for the Padres.
They are cheap. (Cough, Matt Carpenter, cough.)
Lots rides on health and effectiveness of the top 3 pitchers for sure. And of course, FTJ, JM, MM, and X need to have good to great years.
I posit that the bets made on the fringe roster spots (Nick, Andujar, Moon) this year are better than last year’s by a wide margin.
As for the pitchers, at least Canning and Marquez have had some success in the past and, depending upon their contract, seem like reasonable lottery tickets. Certainly better than Kyle Hart and others.
This team is better in Opening Day than they were on Opening Day in 2025…on paper.
Left field, catcher, DH, and closer all better in 2026. Good case that 1B will be better too.
Better bullpen depth (Morgan + Rodriguez replace Omar Cruz and Alex Jacob) and have some other guys too (Acosta, Adcock, Marinaccio) for depth.
Better bench:
Potential 2026: Andujar, Nick C, Moon (maybe), Lockridge, Wagner, Miranda, Campy.
2025 OD: Heyward, Gurriel, Iglesias, Lockridge, Maldonado, Sheets. So awful.
Only question in my mind is starting pitching. But remember, it was King, Cease, hoping for good things from Pivetta, Vasquez and Hart.
Now it’s King, Pivetta, hoping for good things from Joe M, and some combo of Vasquez, Canning, Marquez, McKenzie, Gonzalez, and Hart.
No room for injury at the top end but some decent depth for the 4-5 spots.
2025 had a higher ceiling but once King was injured, Yu never really made it back, and Cease struggled with inconsistency, the starting pitching was anchored by Pivetta…and Vasquez. Vasquez was the 2 or 3 in the rotation.
And here’s the elephant in the room. Hopefully Stammen won’t manage like Shildt when it comes to bunting and lineup construction (Arraez, grrr). That could be worth a win or two on its own.
Now the team won’t be adding like they did at the deadline since they don’t appear to have assets to do it. So, the end of year roster comparison might be very different.
Net / Net: I agree, it’s likely not a World Series team. It would require catching lightning in a bottle, multiple times. But it’s a better team than 2025, at least on Opening Day.
This is pretty accurate to me. I like this lineup and I hope Merrill stays healthy. When he got hurt last year we had a big drop off.
We don't have the Dodgers SP’ing no doubt. But the staff just has to beat most the other staffs and it could. Anything can happen in the playoffs and this team should be good enough to get there again. I don’t think the bullpen is top heavy except for the very top guy. He’s better than everyone on all teams outta the pen. If X can be 2nd half X, maybe things could gel! Ya nevah know!