Power outage
The biggest issue the San Diego Padres still have is a lack of power in the lineup. What's the cause? What's the solution?
Despite scoring 7 runs, a number that could either be a sign of an offense that’s waking up or a sign that the Padres were playing a day game at Coors Field against a bad pitcher who is no longer allowed to use sticky substances, the Padres lost 8-7 yesterday.
The San Diego Padres were swept by the lowly Colorado Rockies is what is yet another low point of the season. A season that had such high expectations and such a great start looks like it is starting to slip through the cracks during a disastrous June.
The Padres are 4-11 so far in the month of June, and there are any number of factors you could point to. The team doesn’t get on base anymore. They don’t work pitch counts anymore. The pitching that carried them is starting to fall apart, just as pitching across the league is.
They just don’t seem really balanced right now. When the pitching is there, the offense isn’t. When the offense is there, the pitching isn’t. Something has to give.
On-base
The formula for early Padres victories was pretty simple. The team would take a lot of pitches, get on base a bunch, and chase opposing starters by the 5th inning. Then they would typically light up at least one of the opposing relief pitchers, scoring enough to win the game.
Despite being pretty terrible at taking pitches and getting walks lately, the Padres are still 5th in the NL in on-base percentage and 2nd in walks. That should show you just how great they were at it for the first 50 or so games of this season, as well as how great Tommy Pham has been at working walks while the team around him has mostly stopped doing so.
But this is not the main problem. It’s a symptom of the main problem. It’s a side effect of having just one hitter in the lineup that pitchers are afraid to make mistakes to.
Power
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been a brilliant hitter this year and probably would be leading the team in every offensive category anyway, but the amount that he’s leading by makes you wonder if he’s playing with guys that make more than $20 million per year or if this is the Padres of the mid-2010s.
I know the 2021 Padres have played 70 games and the 2020 Padres only played 60, but let’s do some comparisons between the two anyway.
The 2020 Padres had seven qualifying batters with a slugging percentage over .400. The 2021 Padres have four.
The 2020 Padres had five batters with 9 HRs or more. The 2020 Padres have two.
Oh, and just for fun, the 2020 Padres had two batters with 6 GIDPs or more. This year’s team has five of them.
To put it bluntly, this offense was supposed to get on base and hit home runs. They’re not hitting home runs, and lately they’re not getting on base. And when they do get on base, it is turning into double plays more than it used to.
What’s the problem?
So, what’s the cause of the team’s power outage and the spike in double plays? Well, this is where you get to form your own opinion.
Maybe everyone is hurt. We know Machado is fighting a shoulder issue that’s sapping his power. Many suspect the leg injury Wil Myers was battling earlier this season is doing the same for him.
This theory tracks in that the lineup would likely be a lot more productive if Trent Grisham and Austin Nola could stay healthy. Those guys have been great when they’re actually in the lineup.
Maybe it’s the time of year. Remember, offenses tend to come alive in the summer and last year’s Padres started their season in July. Maybe the offense is coming?
Maybe it’s the schedule. Last year’s team didn’t have to travel nearly as much and definitely didn’t have a stretch of playing 42 games in 44 days with tons of cross-country travel mixed in. They guys definitely look exhausted. Maybe that’s killing the offense.
Maybe it’s the approach. The 9th inning was pretty horrifying to watch yesterday. The Padres ended up scoring 1 run and tying the game, but they should’ve done much more.
Carlos Estevez was having a hard time finding the strike zone, walking the first two guys he faced, before getting bailed out by terrible approaches. Manny Machado swung at a 2-0 pitch that was at least a foot inside and popped out. Then Wil Myers swing at the first pitch he saw and grounded into a fielder’s choice. It was embarrassing.
Maybe it’s the roster. I saw Dennis Lin wrote something to this effect after the loss on Tuesday. That perhaps we had all read into the team’s success in 2020 a little too much and screwed ourselves as a result. Maybe Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer are actually bad. Maybe Jurickson Profar doesn’t belong in MLB, much less playing every day. I don’t like this theory but there’s some merit there.
What can be done?
Eventually, I’ll talk about what trades A.J. Preller can make at the deadline to help this team. However, the deadline is over a month away and this current team has to prove that they’re worth an investment before one will be made.
That means that right now, it’s a lot of watching and waiting. If this team is going to compete for a World Series trophy this season, they need to prove themselves now. Because despite being tired, this team should be able to beat the level of opponents that they’re going up against right now.
Which leads me to today, what is being called “San Diego’s Opening Day”. The first time that Petco Park will be completely full since September 2019.
We, as fans, can pack those seats and cheer loudly. It’s about the only thing we can do and it’s about the only option that’s left for the team. They need to rely on us, the fans, to give them energy (or adrenaline) for the next few games.
A big, loud cheering crowd can make tired legs feel fresh and sore bodies feel healthy. And that’s what the Padres need now. As the token optimist of the June portion of this season, I believe the baseball team will look different over the next few days as these guys get carried by the screaming fans of Petco Park.