Q&A Mailbag: 7-man rotation?
I made up some questions about the San Diego Padres and then answered them myself. You're welcome.
Hi! I meant to, earlier this week, set up a way for people to send me questions that I could then answer on this post Friday morning. It’s still a good idea, I just lacked the execution. As such, I’m going to soldier on and just use pretend questions…
Are the Padres actually good or should we be worried about a precipitous fall from grace?
Oh, they’re good alright. The easiest, and maybe best, way to judge if a team is good or just lucky is to look at their run differential. That’s what pythagorean W-L records are based on, after all.
The Padres current run differential is +44, meaning they have scored 44 more runs than their opponents over the first 57 games that they have played. Here’s a list of the teams that have a run differential of +44 or better so far this season, along with where they currently sit in their respective divisions:
Dodgers +114 (1st)
Yankees +104 (1st)
Mets +64 (1st)
Astros +45 (1st)
Padres +44 (2nd)
I think it’s fair to say the Padres are one of the 5 or 6 best teams in baseball, right now, and that’s with their offense still being fairly inconsistent.
I haven’t heard about the starting rotation crunch in a while, what’s happening there?
Funny how everyone stopped talking about this after Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell returned, but it’s still going on! It might be reaching peak strangeness, actually.
Yup, the Padres are projected to throw seven different starting pitchers over their next seven games. So, while they’re not technically calling it a 7-man rotation (and Nick Martinez did just do a piggyback with Clevinger), that’s kind of what it is right now.
What I’m interested to check is if this is actually keeping the innings down for some of these guys or not. Let’s focus on the guys that have been in the rotation all year and compare them to….the Dodgers.
Padres starters: 328.0 IP (about 64% of total innings), 3.07 ERA, 1.110 WHIP
Dodgers starters: 298.2 IP (about 58% of total innings), 2.65 ERA, 1.068 WHIP
Okay, so right out of the gate, the Padres are offloading some innings from their inconsistent bullpen. That’s good!
The starters in the Dodgers’ rotation that have been pitching all season all range from 57-61 IP, as of today. The starters in the Padres’ rotation that have been pitching all season range from 66-69 IP, but they haven’t had this extended rotation going the entire time.
So, my thoughts on a 7-man (or 6+) rotation are as follows:
Musgrove/Darvish/Manaea probably need this to keep them healthy all season.
This is a wise use of resources, leaning more on the starters while the middle relief is shaky because they have starters to spare.
The Padres are really only deploying it when they don’t have days off, as a way to keep guys pitching once a week (their normal rhythm).
Is Manny Machado hurt?
Yup! I mentioned it in my post yesterday, and shoutout to Carl Carson in the comments for adding to the conversation. Manny was apparently having the trainer work on his back during pregame, and he missed his last at-bat opportunity after a big swing-and-miss brought him to his knees on the at-bat before that.
This helps to explain why Manny has been struggling as of late. I’m sure the day off yesterday helped him. I’m also sure he won’t miss much, if any, time. But maybe we’ll see a little more of him at DH until he starts feeling more like himself, which is a resource Jayce Tingler probably wished he could’ve used when Manny was fighting through his shoulder issues last season.
Can we believe in this hot streak from Cronenworth? What about Grisham?
I tend to be a glass-half-full optimist when it comes to the Padres, and I’m a dork who believes that narratives are real, so here’s what I think happened with Cronenworth:
He missed the first part of (shortened) spring training with an injury. I’m going to guess that he forced himself back a little early because he wanted reps before the start of the season.
I think it took him a while to feel like himself, health-wise, and then a while to find his rhythm and timing. These are things that usually work themselves out during the course of a normal spring training, or a rehab stint in the minors, and Crone had to do it while playing in the MLB lineup every day.
Now that Cronenworth looks like himself again, I think we can rely on him being the guy he’s been the last two seasons. The .391/.482/.870 over the last week is probably too much to ask for, but it’s fun to see him get hot so that his overall numbers start shifting rapidly.
Grish has had an OBP over .300 and a SLG over .400 for the last month. He’s hitting better than .250 for the last couple of weeks and over .300 for the last week. Whatever hole he had in his swing seems to have been worked out between him and the hitting coach, and he looks like his old self. His pre-injury in 2021 self, maybe with a little less power. That guy isn’t losing his job anytime soon.
Which Padres prospects could realistically help the MLB team this year?
The Padres have the maximum 40 men on their 40-man roster, plus a few guys on the 60-day IL. They’re going to have to cut some people when guys like Tatis and Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson return from injury, so I don’t imagine they’re looking for more chances to do so.
Barring someone in El Paso absolutely lighting the world on fire, I think anyone who is going to be on the MLB team right now is either on the 40-man roster already or someone that will be traded for. Here’s a list of the minor league players currently on the Padres’ 40-man:
Those pitchers have a chance to crack the Padres’ middle relief but that’s about it. Out of the position players, here are my thoughts:
I honestly think they’re shopping Campusano in a trade and have no interest in him joining the MLB team.
Brent Rooker and Brett Sullivan are kind of whatever. Roster filler.
I think Abrams comes back as a September call-up but not before.
Eguy Rosario has been playing well in El Paso, but he’s basically a utility infielder and the Padres already have a surplus of those.
One other name not on the list? Esteury Ruiz…
This kid can flat-out hit and he plays the outfield. He just got to El Paso, so we’ll check in with him in a month or two, but I could see the team adding him to the 40-man roster if Wil Myers ends up going on the 60-day IL.
What will the Padres be looking for in trade over the next two months?
Great question, me. They’re in luck that they won’t be searching for starting pitching or a closer at the deadline, the two worst things to go shopping for in July.
A.J. Preller will probably try his damndest to add a solid relief arm to the bullpen, because it needs it and because he always does that. I also think, if Crone and Grish continue to hit, the team would be looking to upgrade in RF (maybe a LH batter with some pop?) and maybe catcher.
I’m sure Preller would love to do something different with the 1B spot, but that’s unrealistic. I’m also sure he’s getting jumpy about Kim’s poor hitting at SS, but he has to rely on Tatis coming back until he doesn’t. He can’t go trading for a new starting SS.
Is “Leadoff Profar” a real thing?
I think so! Let’s see how he’s hitting in that spot compared to others this season:
Hilariously, his best spot in the lineup has been batting 7th and the only spot in the lineup where he’s hit less this year than 7th is 8th. Maybe the goal is to just keep Profar as far from the heart of the lineup as possible.
Still, you can tell that Profar understands the assignment. He has his best OBP of any spot when hitting leadoff, and if he’s comfortable enough to be posting a .900+ OPS then he’s going to stay there until it stops working.
Why is Austin Nola still here?
Nola was bad enough that he lost his starting spot and is now splitting time with Jorge Alfaro at the catcher’s spot. Since making that adjustment, Nola has been even worse at the plate. He’s batting .213 over the last month and it’s much worse than that over the last two weeks.
In the last week, he has had 13 plate appearances and has 2 walks to show for it. He’s slashing a smooth .000/.231/.000 over that span.
Unless he comes out of it in Colorado next week, I think the best course of action is for the team to say he’s got a sore knee and let him go work in private for a bit. Maybe let him see a few fly over the fence in El Paso before coming back. Because, right now, he looks lost.
As for why Nola is still here, there are several reasons:
He calls a great game.
He seems to be a great teammate.
They invested a ton to get him and they’re not ready to call that a failure (yet).
He seemed to have an elite hitting skill before this season. If waiting worked for Crone and Grish, why wouldn’t they wait a little while longer for Nola?
Anyway, clock is ticking, Austin. Hope you pack your bats for Wrigley and Coors.
Will the Padres trade either Hosmer or Myers to clear some salary space?
LOL no. Nobody wants either of those players and definitely nobody wants those contracts. You might be able to flip Myers for a different, longer bad contract, but there’s no good reason to do that right now. And he can’t be traded while he’s injured, anyway. We’re stuck with those guys for this season, at least.
Is the bullpen fixed?
Maaaaaaaaaan, maybe. Here’s how things line up now.
Closer - Taylor Rogers
Setup - Luis Garcia
LHP - Tim Hill / Adrian Morejon
Middle - Steven Wilson / Craig Stammen
Long - Nabil Crismatt / Nick Martinez
Is that enough? Absolutely not. You’d love to find more reliable options than what the team has gotten from Hill and Wilson and Stammen this year, but that’s a trade deadline question.
The two long relief guys are really good, as far as long relievers go, and that helps a ton. I also have a ridiculous amount of faith in Morejon to be a lock-down 7th or 8th inning guy this season, probably as a result of how great he looked on Tuesday.
That’s a pretty solid 7th-8th-9th to take care of leads. Most of the starters are going 6+ innings because they’re well rested as a result of the 7-man (or 6+) rotation. This is a good solution until something else breaks.
Thanks for reading! I promise next week I will set up a way for you guys to actually send questions in so I’m not just talking to myself.
re: the bullpen, I'm tired of waiting for Pomeranz to finally be a "thing" but getting Pierce back after getting Morejon back too makes that group look a whoooooole lot better