Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

The Padres are hoping to tread water and not get swept as they face a good Cardinals team while missing half of their lineup.

With the San Diego Padres hurting, a result of a couple of positive COVID-19 tests, in to town come the 1st place St. Louis Cardinals and their devil magic. Let’s preview the series!

What happened last time they played?

The last time these two teams faced off was in the playoffs last year, when the Padres used nine pitchers to shutout the Cardinals offense on their way to a 4-0 win in the deciding game of the Wild Card series. It was the first playoff series win for the Padres since 1998, and it felt like some long-feared demons were exorcised in the process.

What have they done recently?

The St. Louis Cardinals are 23-15 heading into these series, with a 3-game lead atop the NL Central division, and I feel like both of those things are true about 40 games into every season. Just like always, the Cardinals are good but not dominant.

The Cardinals have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, having recently swept both the Rockies and Pirates. They’re coming off an impressive series win over the Milwaukee Brewers in which they gave up just 2 runs over 3 games.

The San Diego Padres are 21-17 heading into Friday’s game, having gone 5-5 in their last 10, and had the day off on Thursday after taking the series in Colorado against the Rockies. With some luck, the Padres could catch the first place San Francisco Giants this weekend after losing a road series to them earlier this week.

Key injuries

The St. Louis Cardinals have been quite lucky when it comes to injuries this year. Dakota Hudson is out with Tommy John and has been since before the playoffs last year, but other than that it’s a bunch of tiny nagging injuries. Carlos Martinez and Miles Mikolas are out but could be back. Andrew Miller is throwing bullpens without an issue. Maybe the most impactful injury they’re currently facing is Paul DeJong, who is trying to fight through a side injury but could get up going on the IL soon.

The Padres pitchers have faced more injuries than the hitters, to this point, and the team has spent most of this season reshuffling and rethinking both the starting rotation and the bullpen to deal with it.

They are without two guys that were expected to be in rotation this year (Mike Clevinger, Adrian Morejon) due to Tommy John surgery. They are also missing four more important arms from the bullpen heading into this series (Drew Pomeranz, Keone Kela, Dan Altavilla, Taylor Williams), so get used to seeing guys like Nick Ramirez and Nabil Crismatt.

But, more importantly for this series, a couple of positive COVID-19 tests for Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wil Myers has ravaged the lineup. Contact tracing has removed Eric Hosmer and Jurickson Profar, as well as bench player Jorge Mateo, from the lineup along with Tatis and Myers. While the defense could potentially improve with the guys that are playing in their place, runs will be hard to come by.

Pitching matchups

The Padres were already just trying to keep from getting swept in this series, what with half of their starting lineup likely to miss the whole thing, but it gets even more difficult when the Cardinals miss Yu Darvish’s spot on the rotation.

Joe Musgrove vs. Johan Oviedo

Musgrove has had two bad starts in a row, and maybe three depending on how to rate his short outing against the Dodgers, so it’s time for him to get back on track. Oviedo is, I believe, filling Carlos Martinez’s spot in the rotation and has been just as bad as Musgrove in his last two starts.

Chris Paddack vs. Adam Wainwright

Chris Paddack is back and it’s time for him to face a real test. So far this season, he’s been the worst starter in the Padres rotation. However, in his last two starts (one before COVID and one after), his fastball has new life and his effectiveness has gone way up.

Wainwright is one of MLB’s graybeards and his performance tells a similar tale. In seven starts, he’s been great four times and pretty bad the other three. It’s hard to know which guy will show up on Saturday, but he’s historically been really good against the Padres.

Ryan Weathers (L) vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (L)

Hyun Kim, whom the Cardinals found in the KBO before last season, has been lights out since coming to MLB. This year’s 2.74 ERA is actually a drop off from the 1.62 ERA from last season, but his FIP has dropped from 3.88 to 2.36. He’s really, really good. Scoring runs against him will be a challenge.

After throwing 5.2 innings against the Dodgers on 4/22, Ryan Weathers has been in the same spot as Dinelson Lamet: possibly injured and trying to pitch through it. The team has said he’ll start this game, after coming out of the bullpen his last two appearances, but I would be surprised if he went more than 3 innings.

Lineups

Here’s my best guess at a Padres lineup with the roster set up the way it is currently:

Trent Grisham, CF
Jake Cronenworth, 1B
Manny Machado, 3B
Austin Nola, C
Tommy Pham, LF
Tucupita Marcano, 2B
Ha-Seong Kim, SS
Brian O’Grady, RF

This is basically the lineup they put out against the Rockies’ right-handed starters, although I bumped Pham down from 4 to 5 in the lineup.

If Paul DeJong can play, the Cardinals lineup is basically the same every game:

Tommy Edman, 2B
Dylan Carlson, RF
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
Nolan Arenado, 3B
Paul DeJong, SS
Yadier Molina, C
Tyler O’Neill, LF
Harrison Bader, CF

If DeJong can’t go, they’ll sub in Matt Carpenter (yes, that Matt Carpenter) at 2B and move Edman to SS and otherwise stay the same, but some lineup shuffling takes place.

It’s amusing that the Cardinals have traded for both the guy that used to drive the Diamondbacks offense and the guy that used to drive the Rockies offense. It’s like looking at a strange 2010s NL West All-Star squad.

Expectations

My expectations for this series are very low. I can’t stress that enough. The Padres aren’t that much better than the Rockies right now, who the Cardinals swept with relative ease.

If the Padres are going to win any games with this roster at this ballpark, it’s going to take an outstanding pitching performance and maybe another shutout of the St. Louis offense to get it done. With Musgrove, Paddack, and Weathers set up as the starters, that would take some of the good luck that the Padres have been missing for the first month and a half of the season.

Personally, I’d love to see Manny Machado catch fire and throw this team on his back until the missing guys get back. His 1.101 career OPS vs. the Cardinals is better than he has against any team not named the Baltimore Orioles, so it’s possible!