The Climb
Some random thoughts about the 2022 Padres and trying to maintain perspective.
The problem with writing a daily blog/newsletter about a baseball team, such as the San Diego Padres, is that baseball doesn’t require daily analysis. In fact, you could make a very good argument that talking about a baseball team every single day beyond the normal beat writer stuff (game recaps, series previews, etc.) will lead you down a path of doing more harm than good.
That is to say, after a day off for the Padres, I don’t have many new thoughts about the team.
I’ve been keeping an eye on the 2022 Padres’ record in comparison to the 1998 Padres, not just the team that went to the World Series but also the team that made me fall in love with baseball in the first place. Up until recently, that was a really good comparison to make. Here’s where that comp is at now:
2022 Padres: 45-30
1998 Padres: 49-26
The 2022 Padres have been tied or ahead of the 1998 Padres for pretty much this entire season, but the 98 Padres were 18-9 in June while this year’s team is 15-11 in June (so far).
After the 1998 Padres got their 25th loss, they immediately won 11 straight. At this point in the season, that team was getting stronger. Meanwhile, this season’s squad is faltering a little bit.
This isn’t to say that the comparison makes me worried. The 1998 Padres also went 9-15 in September. Every good team has a portion of the season where they go on a hot streak, and a portion of the season where they are dealing with a cold streak (and/or injuries). Just because this year’s Padres aren’t hot right now doesn’t mean that they won’t be hot a month from now.
I think, if you were to ask me why I believed in this year’s Padres team, it’s because they have already overcome so much this season. They’ve been (takes deep breath)….
without their best player for the entire season
without their (new) manager for large chunks of the season
without their bench coach / interim manager for a large chunk of the season
dealing with lesser versions of both Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger, expected to be two of the four best starters on the team heading into the season
are now without their (other?) best player for a period of time due to injury
have been without their starting RF for much of the season
It’s tempting to say that this is nearly the same team as last year’s, just replace Tommy Pham with Sean Manaea (and Paddack/Gore, and Melancon/Rogers, etc.), and that we shouldn’t be surprised that they have roughly the same record at roughly the same point (45-30 vs. 45-32). But last year’s team had Tatis. And that alone means the foundation of this team is better and that they should be well situated to go on a hot streak later in the season when he comes back.
Right now, I’d recommend trying to view this team through that kind of long-term lens. It’s okay if they are having a hard time dealing with this current stretch without Tatis and Machado, there should be (in theory) plenty of time with both of them in the lineup in the second half of the season.
That being said, I don’t like the timing of this upcoming series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. I know the Dodgers haven’t exactly been dominant lately, but they’re catching the Padres at (arguably) their weakest.
As such, I am trying to look for positives around the fringes. If the Padres can take both games against the Diamondbacks (a 2-game series that kicks off tonight) and both games against the Mariners (a 2-game series after the weekend), it won’t matter what happens against the Dodgers in between.
I’m not going to say the AZ & SEA series are must-win series for the Padres, but it would be incredibly disappointing if they didn’t at least split them both. I don’t want to pin my hopes on anything positive happening against the Dodgers without the two biggest bats in the lineup.