The crushing weight of expectations
The Padres, once again, followed up a great win with a disastrous loss.
I have this phrase that I stole from a friend of mine and I’ve been using it a lot. Here it is, straight from the friend that I stole it from:
I think about this phrase a lot lately, especially when it comes to the 2022 San Diego Padres. I don’t want to get into the why of our expectations were (or are) high for the San Diego Padres, that’s a whole other conversation.
However, I do want to talk about expectations. We kicked off this year by saying that the Padres might have “three or four aces” in the starting rotation. We assumed any issues with the offense was tied to clubhouse and would be fixed by the change in manager. We thought that Fernando Tatis Jr. would finally be healthy.
But the expectations didn’t stop once the season began. Personally, I’ve spent all season waiting for the Padres to go on a winning streak. I don’t think they’ve won more than four games in a row.
And, while the Padres are expected to finish in the third Wild Card spot (a spot that didn’t exist a couple of years ago) and facing the toughest path to the World Series of any playoff team, we’ve talked ourselves into new expectations: “This team was built to win in the playoffs.”
Let’s recap…
The San Diego Padres have failed to meet our expectations, fair or unfair.
Juan Soto has failed to meet our expectations (so far), fair or unfair.
Joe Musgrove has failed to meet our expectations, fair or unfair.
Josh Bell has failed to meet our expectations (although he’s getting better), fair or unfair.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has failed to meet our fair expectations.
Trent Grisham has failed to meet our expectations, fair or unfair.
Austin Nola has failed to meet our expectations, fair or unfair.
Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger have failed to meet our unfair expectations.
Bob Melvin has failed to meet our expectations, fair or unfair.
Anyway, for those wondering why Padres fans have been bitching about the team all year long even though they’re probably going to make the playoffs, there’s your answer.
It’s probably our own fault, but I think we all thought that the team would have a run differential higher than +19 in the middle of September. The 71-70 Minnesota Twins have a higher run differential than that.
At no point during this season have the Padres looked like one of the five best teams in baseball for more than a day or two, unless you’re counting how they look on paper. And that’s disappointing, because they have the payroll (and talent) of a top five team.
The starting rotation is falling apart
Let me start with this: I don’t know how Bob Melvin hasn’t noticed that Mike Clevinger falls apart around 75 pitches every time he’s out there. Here’s as much as the splits break it down…
Pitch 1-25: .634 OPS against
Pitch 26-50: .635 OPS against
Pitch 51-75: .824 OPS against
Pitch 75-100: .887 OPS against
It has become something of a parlor game for me when Clevinger pitches. I wait until he gets around 70 pitches and then wait to see how long it takes before he blows up, all the while wondering why Bob Melvin isn’t warming somebody up or getting out the hook.
Yesterday, Clevinger started the 5th inning around 70 pitches. He hit the first two batters he faced and gave up a three-run home run to the fourth. It was obvious that he had nothing left to give, but the Padres were left flat-footed again and were unprepared to bring someone in to replace him despite the fact that this has been happening for months.
Anyway, Clevinger had to finish the inning and ended up throwing 94 pitches on the day. I really hope they figure out a better plan for Clevinger going forward than “Hope and pray that he’s a 100-pitch starter like he was before Tommy John surgery.” That plan is proving to not be very effective.
Tonight, the Padres will throw Sean Manaea back out there to see if a skipped start might have given new life to his very dead arm. If not, the Padres will be heading into the final few weeks of the season with at least 40% (and maybe 60%) of their starting rotation hobbling and waiting to give up more runs.
Quick Soto update
Juan Soto went 0-2 with 2 walks, but the most telling thing about his performance is how unafraid pitchers are of him right now. I watched Luis Castillo threw fastball after fastball down the middle of the strike zone to Soto without a concern. Soto either didn’t swing or would foul them off, not making good contact on any of them.
Until further notice, Juan Soto remains in a slump.
Tomorrow is Friday, which means mailbag day. Send in your questions here and I’ll do my best to answer them tomorrow.