The Padres are built to win now

As the San Diego Padres continue to demolish the Reds, let's take a brief moment to look forward to the next couple of offseasons and see what it means for the team right now.

It’s amazing how much better it feels to root for a team when they’re in the middle of a series against one of the worst teams in all of baseball, isn’t it?

For two straight nights, the story has been mostly the same for the San Diego Padres. Tommy Pham hits a solo HR in the top of the 1st inning, Manny Machado answers with a 2-run HR in the bottom of the 1st inning, and the pitching takes it from there.

The only real difference between Monday and Tuesday nights was the 1st inning collision at home plate between Luke Voit and Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson. The Reds claim it was dirty, Tommy Pham has offered to fight Luke Voit in a mixed martial arts match, and the Reds had to go without a DH for much of the game after moving Aramis Garcia from DH to catcher after the collision.

But I don’t want to focus on the brilliance of Manny Machado or Joe Musgrove or the bullpen or even Bob Melvin last night. I want to look forward for a minute. I want to talk about…contracts.

Padres free agents after 2022

Here are the guys set to hit unrestricted free agency in the upcoming offseason:

Sean Manaea
Joe Musgrove
Mike Clevinger
Taylor Rogers
Craig Stammen
Wil Myers*

That list includes three starting pitchers, the team’s closer, a valuable bullpen arm and the starting RF. The good news is that the team should have some more flexibility to re-sign these guys or sign new players to replace them, because Wil Myers (who has a team option for $20M) will come off the books and Eric Hosmer’s annual salary will drop by about $8M (assuming he picks up his player option).

It doesn’t mean the Padres have to win it all in 2022, but the longer the team waits, the harder it will be. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s annual number only climbs from here.

But that’s not all! If we look beyond this offseason, things get even harder to nail down.

Padres free agents after 2023

After losing three starting pitchers, a closer and a starting RF after 2022, you’d think things would get easier the following year. Nope.

Yu Darvish
Blake Snell
Drew Pomeranz
Jurickson Profar
Robert Suarez
Dinelson Lamet
Luis Garcia
Jorge Alfaro

That is two starting pitchers, two to three valuable bullpen arms, and the team’s (current) starting LF.

Now, obviously, the Padres can re-sign these guys or sign others with the money coming off the books. But this front office made big investments to put this team together. Losing Darvish or Snell in free agency also means the team no longer gets a return on the prospects they traded away to get them, for example.

The reason for concern

A team contending now that also wants to contend in the future needs one thing that the Padres don’t currently have: a great farm system.

Ideally, as some of the players on the MLB roster get older, the team can make the decision to invest in some and replace others with cheap, young talent coming through the minor league system.

However, the once lauded Padres farm system has been gutted over the last two seasons as the team has made countless prospects-for-pros trades (for Austin Nola, Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Trent Grisham, Taylor Rogers, Sean Manaea…just to name a few).

The Padres’ farm system now ranks 17th out of 30 MLB clubs, which isn’t terrible but is incredibly average. Also, it was only recently that the Padres showed a potential ability to develop those prospects into big league players.

The reason for confidence

The difficult part about building a championship-level roster is finding the superstars. The easy (or easier) part is filling out the rest of the roster with enough good (affordable) players to offer depth where needed.

The Padres will have the superstars. Here’s a list of some of the guys that will be with the team through at least 2025:

Manny Machado
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Eric Hosmer
Jake Cronenworth
Trent Grisham
Austin Nola
C.J. Abrams
MacKenzie Gore
Adrian Morejon

The team should have Machado and Tatis through the 2028 season, but…

The Manny question

This is the crux of everything. This is the reason I’m writing this post.

Manny Machado can opt out of his contract after next season. Along with losing Darvish and Snell, the Padres could also lose their superstar third baseman. That would slam their window for contention shut quickly, regardless of what the team does with its free agents in this upcoming offense.

The same way the team wants to impress upon Fernando Tatis Jr. that this is a place where he can live out the Hall of Fame career that he wants to have, they have two seasons to prove to Manny Machado that he wants to stay in San Diego.

As of right now, Machado is the third highest paid 3B in baseball (trailing Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon). Should he want to be the highest paid 3B in baseball, there is almost assuredly a team out there that would offer him that opportunity. So, how do the Padres get him to accept his player option for the final five years of his contract?

They win. They win big, and they win consistently. Now is the time. Keep that in mind this weekend as they welcome to town the Los Angeles Dodgers.