The Padres are tired
The San Diego Padres are muddling their way through a brutal stretch of the schedule and are lucky to be surviving at all.
It is now June 1st. The last time the Padres had a day off was May 20th, but that doesn’t really show the brutality of this portion of their schedule. I’ll do my best to try…
5/21: vs. Mariners
5/22: vs. Mariners
5/23: vs. Mariners & Fly to Milwaukee
5/24: at Brewers
5/25: at Brewers
5/26: at Brewers (Extra Innings)
5/27: at Brewers (Extra Innings) & Fly to Houston
5/28: at Astros (Extra Innings)
5/29: at Astros (Extra Innings)
5/30: at Astros & Fly to Chicago
5/31: at Cubs
I am exhausted just looking at that. Four extra innings games in four days with a 1,200 mile flight in the middle of it? No, thank you.
The Padres have gone, miraculously, 7-4 over that stretch of games. That’s the good news!
The bad news is that they’re not done yet. Not by a long shot. We’re barely in the middle of this grind. The team’s next off day is June 10th, a day when the team can’t even really relax at home because they’ll be flying 2,800 miles and across three time zones before playing the Mets the next day.
That will be 20 games in 20 days, and then a travel day, and then 13 more games in 13 days with more travel mixed in, as a treat. Yikes!
The depth
The San Diego Padres are undoubtedly one of the most talented teams in baseball this year, and their depth isn’t terrible, but they are being killed by poorly timed injuries just when they need that depth the most.
Trent Grisham, really the only centerfielder on the team, hasn’t played since the first game listed above (5/21 vs. Seattle). He’s expected back today, and the team needs both his fielding and his bat.
Austin Nola, who has struggled to stay healthy since the Padres traded for him last season, is once again on the Injured List with a sprained knee.
Drew Pomeranz, the highest paid bullpen arm on the roster by a mile, hasn’t pitched since May 9th. Add him to the list of relief pitchers the team is sorely missing along with Keone Kela, Dan Altavilla, Taylor Williams, Matt Strahm, and Adrian Morejon.
Manny Machado is battling a shoulder injury and has started just one game at third base since May 19th.
Having this many injuries to integral parts of the Padres roster is one thing. Trying to play a game every day, with travel mixed in as well, while trying to manage this number of injuries feels almost impossible. The team is just trying to keep its head above water right now.
The pitching
I mentioned the relief arms that are missing, and they’d definitely be valuable right now with all of those extra innings games and close games/save situations, but the bigger issue might be with the starting pitching.
Right now, the Padres have just one starting pitcher that they can count on to give them 5+ innings each time out. Maybe two if you want to count Joe Musgrove, who skipped his start this week to pitch 5 innings out of the bullpen in relief of Blake Snell.
Dinelson Lamet is not trusted to go more than 3 innings and Ryan Weathers is not trusted to go more than 4 innings. That would be taxing enough on a bullpen, but Blake Snell has thrown 5 innings in just one of his last five starts.
In about half of the Padres games, the bullpen is pitching half of the game. It has lead to incredible numbers, San Diego’s overall pitching and relief pitching numbers are among the best in all of baseball, but it’s also going to lead to burn out. Especially during parts of the schedule like this that can grind any team to dust.
If you’re wondering what A.J. Preller’s #1 priority should be when we get closer to the trade deadline, it’s probably a starting pitcher that can be relied upon to not kill the bullpen every five days. They’re getting killed enough already.
More good news
This is the hardest it’s going to get. Right now, the months of May and June look like they might be the biggest test the 2021 Padres are going to face all year.
42 games in 44 days is exactly the type of thing that you just try to survive. Doing it after a COVID outbreak took out big portions of the starting lineup for more than a week is harder. Doing it with some poor injury luck is probably about as much chaos as you can ask for.
Oh, and if that’s not fun enough for you, these 44 days end with a three-game set against the Dodgers at Petco Park that will be on national TV.
Here’s as bad as the schedule gets after this tough string:
6/29-7/11: 13 games in 13 days, although there’s two (!) off days right near the beginning of this stretch and the all-star break is right after. Survivable!
7/16-7/25: 10 road games in 10 days, but the travel isn’t awful. DC to Atlanta to Miami after the all-star break seems much better than cross-country flights.
8/6-8/18: 13 games in 13 days, but the travel is again not terrible. The first half is at home, then they go to Phoenix and Denver.
9/10-9/19: 10 road games in 10 days, but the travel is manageable. 3 games at Chavez Ravine, 4 games in San Francisco, and then 3 games in St. Louis.
That’s it! nothing that comes close to comparing to what the team is dealing with right now, both in terms of workload and travel.
If the Padres can find themselves in 1st place or very near 1st place on June 10th, they will have passed a massive test and should be well set up to keep a strong pace the rest of the way.