The Padres offense finds a temporary fix
For at least one night, the San Diego Padres offense came back to life to crush the Chicago Cubs in game 1 of their series at Petco Park.
Before last night, the Padres offense had really been struggling. They had scored just 6 runs in 3 games against the Cubs, and then 5 runs in 4 games against the Mets. They scored 9 runs last night.
While recording a new Padres Hot Tub podcast episode last night, Craig Elsten and I tried to figure out how this team started this current stretch of schedule going 11-1 before going 6-8 in their last 14 games (before last night). What we settled on is a little complicated to explain:
There are some guys that are big offensive producers for the Padres this year, when healthy (Tatis, Grisham, Machado, Nola). While much of the 11-1 start was during a COVID outbreak that sidelined Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer and Jurickson Profar (along with Tatis), none of those guys have been positives in the lineup since April. They were easy to replace. Replacing Grisham and Machado and Nola is a much more difficult task.
During the recent offensive struggles, Grisham and Nola have been out with injuries. Machado has been playing poorly due to some injuries that he’s playing through….
I know, I’m getting a little bit in a weeds here. Let me back up and be blunt. Before last night’s game, here is a quick look at which of the starting 8 positions could be relied upon for offense for the Padres:
C̶a̶t̶c̶h̶e̶r̶
F̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶B̶a̶s̶e̶
S̶e̶c̶o̶n̶d̶ ̶B̶a̶s̶e̶
Shortshop
T̶h̶i̶r̶d̶ ̶B̶a̶s̶e̶
Left Field
C̶e̶n̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶F̶i̶e̶l̶d̶
R̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶F̶i̶e̶l̶d̶
That’s right, outside of Tatis and Pham, nobody in the lineup has been very good for the last two weeks. That explains why the offensive output has been bad over that span. It also explains how the offense was able to be survive with Hosmer, Myers, Profar, and Tatis on the sidelines. It wasn’t that different from the situation they were already in.
So, what happened last night?
The Padres scored 9 runs on their way to a dominating win over the Cubs, and they got production from five different Padres in the lineup. They’ll need that night-in and night-out to keep scoring runs regularly.
Jake Cronenworth and Victor Caratini had good nights at the dish, and that will happen from them. Both have been a bit up-and-down lately, as they’ve been asked to do too much, but a good night for both isn’t shocking.
Tommy Pham has been on fire recently, and that kept up last night. He went 1-3 with 2 walks, 1 run, and 1 RBI. (That’s an OBP of .600.)
The big difference was what the Padres got from RF and 3B last night.
While talking about how tired this team currently is, I believe I said the Padres could use an infusion of fresh legs. They got that in Brian O’Grady, who was called up again yesterday and was an immediate upgrade over Wil Myers in a 2-4 effort with 3 RBIs, 1 walk, and…
Getting that kind of production out of the RF spot maybe could’ve been enough, but Manny was apparently feeling a little better last night because he showed up too.
To put it simply, when the Padres are getting good offensive output from more than half of their lineup, they’re going to score some runs.
What’s the fix going forward?
The bad news is that the Padres have had some rotten injury luck this year. They really need Trent Grisham and Austin Nola to get healthy and stay healthy, it’s kind of key to their championship aspirations.
The Padres also need to start thinking about what to do if Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer don’t turn themselves around, because they can’t afford to be starting every day when neither is doing much of anything at the plate. (The Padres are rumored to be shopping for a corner outfielder on the trade market.)
The good news is that the Padres have a very good record despite these issues. And there’s a decent chance that the team’s luck with injuries will improve, and that Myers and Hosmer won’t be this bad forever.
Right now the fix is to rely on the team’s excellent pitching, and to keep Brian O’Grady in the lineup for as long as he looks offensively competent at this level. I would be shocked if he didn’t give Jurickson Profar a day off from center field tonight, which would likely signify both an offensive and defensive improvement.
Beyond that, it’s just patience. Trent Grisham is arguably the second most important hitter in this lineup and he’s played in exactly half of the Padres games this season. That will improve. Austin Nola is crucial to what the Padres offense is supposed to be and he’s played in exactly 1/4th of the Padres games this season. That will improve.
And when those guys get back, that should make it easier for guys like Myers and Hosmer and Cronenworth.
For right now, it’s just about surviving until that point. Brian O’Grady threw the offense a life vest last night, and Manny looking healthy is a great sign. They can do this.