The Ryan Weathers problem

After another disappointing outing from the Padres' young starting pitcher, it's time to look a little deeper at what is going on with Ryan Weathers.

Remember a while back when we looked at Blake Snell’s weird splits and tried to figure out what was going on?

The good news is that Blake has pitched well on the road and during the day since that post, so those splits will (hopefully) start to normalize.

The bad news is that Ryan Weathers has worse splits, they’re weirder, and they’re (unfortunately) a little easier to explain.

Here’s the first one to be aware of. Unlike Blake Snell, and seemingly every other pitcher in baseball, Ryan Weathers is significantly better away from Petco Park than at it.

His ERA (2.27) is good on the road, his WHIP is fine, and his strikeout rate is nearly 1 per inning. Those are great numbers!

But he’s a train-wreck at home. A 6.54 ERA, a WHIP of 1.5 and a strikeout rate of 6 per 9 innings. That is an entirely different pitcher. But it’s not as simple as not pitching Weathers at home…

Yikes! His ERA has jumped from 2.91 in the first half of the season (58.2 innings) to 11.49 since (15.2 innings).

If you wanted, you could maybe draw the conclusion that the broken bone in his ankle, the result of tripping and falling while fielding first base, was hurting him more than he’s letting on. However, this trend has been going on since before mid-July.

Like clockwork, Weathers’ ERA and WHIP have been climbing every single month since the start of the season.

The pessimistic point of view

As we start to figure out why Weathers is getting worse every month, there are many that believe that Weathers simply isn’t very good. And the more time he spends at this level, the more hitters are figuring him out.

Those advanced metrics sure are scary! Weathers doesn’t throw hard, doesn’t have great stuff, and can’t get hitters to swing and miss his pitches.

If you wanted to believe that we’ve already seen the best of Ryan Weathers and that he’ll never be anything more than an average (at best) middle relief pitcher at this level, there’s plenty of information that can back up that assessment.

The optimistic point of view

There’s really only two optimistic ways to look at this.

One, like Blake Snell, Weathers is in his own head and just needs to find his confidence again before he can throw his fastball aggressively and get back in the game. After getting blown out by the Marlins yesterday, this seemed to be the track that Jayce Tingler was on.

Tingler said that he liked what he saw from Weathers in the 4th and 5th innings, and thinks he just needs to re-find the crispness of his fastball to regain his early season form.

That is a little too pie-in-the-sky, even for me.

The other way to optimistically view this season for Weathers is that he has simply run out of gas.

This would make some sense. He’s already hit a career high in games pitched and he’s inches away from the most innings he’s ever thrown in a single season. And let’s not forget that he has missed time, both this season and earlier in his career, with a “dead arm”.

I imagine the 21 year old, who isn’t in the best shape amongst pitchers on the team, would be a little tired after throwing the most innings of his career at this level (a year after throwing just 1.1 innings). I also believe he’s probably throwing harder, or it is at least more taxing than throwing the same amount of innings at single-A.

I also wouldn’t be shocked to find out he’s dealing with the same “dead arm” issue he’s faced before, but the team is so desperate for starting pitching with Chris Paddack on the injured list that they can’t afford to do anything but let Weathers get pummeled every five days.

What the Padres can do about it

First, there’s pretty much nothing they can do to make Ryan Weathers better this year. Next year is a different story and not one we need to address until the offseason.

What the Padres need to do is find a way to replace those Weathers innings this year with better production. That’s not going to be easy.

First, it’s probably too late for the free agent route. Sure, Mike Leake is a free agent, but it would probably take him a solid month (or longer) to get ready to throw MLB innings. Same goes for everyone else. The Padres probably missed this window when they weren’t able to sign Cole Hamels two weeks ago.

Second, the cupboard is bare when it comes to help from the minors. MacKenzie Gore isn’t pitching in the majors this year (sigh) and the best option when looking through the starting pitching stats of the El Paso Chihuahuas is….Daniel Camarena. And we know how that would go.

There’s only one thing the Padres can do, and it pretty much amounts to “hope and pray”. They can hope that Chris Paddack heals up quickly and comes back strong. If the Padres have four reliable starting pitchers in the rotation, they can get by with the occasional bullpen day. This would work fine for the rest of this season (and postseason), where off days are plentiful.

Then they could move Weathers to the bullpen or, more likely, shut him down for the season and see if they can boost his stuff and stamina for next year.

So, just as I predicted way back in April, the Padres need Chris Paddack.