The unprecedented path of C.J. Abrams
Nobody is quite sure what to make of the minor leagues and prospects these days because a pandemic blew up the system.
If you read Moneyball, or watched the movie, you know that what spurred the success of the Oakland Athletics from the early 2000s (when they were unable to compete financially to keep Jason Giambi) was finding little advantages that the rest of baseball hadn’t caught onto yet. This “find the extra 2%” has also become something of a mantra for most smaller market teams, regardless of sport.
A fun thing that was touched on in the book and skipped in the movie was Billy Beane’s dreaming about being the smartest team in the league, the type that could find those little advantages, while also being at the top tier financially. A team like that, he thought, would be unbeatable. And, despite him turning down a chance to run the Boston Red Sox, he’s turned out to be quite right. That’s exactly what led to 4 Boston Red Sox World Series championships since 2004, and it’s also the building principal of the current World Series champion Dodgers.
So, while I’ve been excited to watch the Padres compete at the top tier financially with the signings of Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell….I am still looking for what the Padres are doing to find the little advantages that the rest of baseball hasn’t caught onto yet.
I’m getting to C.J. Abrams, I promise
Take a few minutes to read FiveThirtyEight’s article about utility players being baseball’s secret weapon and you might start thinking that this might be the advantage A.J. Preller is going for.
This roster is littered with guys that can play more than one position. Let me see if I can list them all without forgetting any:
Jake Cronenworth - 2B/1B/SS/3B/LF/RP
Ha-Seong Kim - 2B/SS/3B/LF
Jurickson Profar - 2B/3B/1B/OF
Wil Myers - OF/1B/3B/C
Austin Nola - C/1B/2B/SS/3B/LF/RF
Brian O’Grady - OF/1B
Jorge Mateo - 2B/SS/LF
Manny Machado - 3B/SS
And now, because C.J. Abrams plays the same position that Fernando Tatis Jr. will play in San Diego for the rest of time, Abrams is going to be asked to do more.
The 20-year old shortstop will play some outfield and second base and probably a few other positions as he waits to see just how much he needs to do before the team can no longer keep him in the minors.
Oh, about the minors…
They’re broken!
Seriously, a fundamental shift in minor league baseball is happening and I feel like nobody is talking about it. Maybe it’s because it has been highlighted the most in San Diego? Maybe this is one of Preller’s little advantages? Either way!
There was no minor-league baseball last year. Teams were given a small roster to keep at an "alternate site” to help fill the major league roster, should a COVID outbreak occur. The Padres, and I don’t think they were alone in this, decided to use the alternate site to keep many of their top prospects in baseball shape and working with the team’s coaches.
Teams are doing another alternate site this year, but the difference between last year and this year (for the Padres) is that the alternate site is moving from Linda Vista (USD) to Peoria, AZ (Padres’ spring/rookie ball facility). That might be important!
One of the major advantages of the alternate site being so close to Petco Park last year had to be (yup, I’m assuming) that MLB coaches, scouts, and front office members could easily come by in the morning for a look at the kids before heading back to the ballpark for an evening MLB game.
Having those coaches, the ones that have been proven so successful during their careers that they’ve graduated up to the MLB level, working with the team’s top prospects on a regular basis (again, assumptions!) had to have some impact. At the very least, it gave Jayce Tingler and his staff enough confidence in a kid they would’ve otherwise not known very well (Ryan Weathers) to call on him in the playoffs to make his MLB debut agains the Dodgers.
Will Abrams break the minors?
Ignoring the usual “clock starting” conversation that comes up whenever you talk about a top prospect, all of the above makes it much easier for the Padres to call up C.J. Abrams much earlier than he would’ve otherwise been.
Prior to last season, C.J. Abrams had played two games above rookie ball. Assuming a normal, successful progression, Abrams would’ve spent last year in low-A and maybe ended in high-A. He would’ve started this season in high-A with hopes of a promotion to double-A before the end of the year.
Instead, because he was able to work with other top prospects and MLB coaches (and was able to spend last season in San Diego rather than riding a bus), the 20-year old Abrams is either ready now because of that time at the alternate site last season or he’s proving that he was already ready and never really needed to slowly go through each level of the minor leagues.
Ready that last paragraph again. Go ahead, I’ll stay here.
C.J. Abrams is either proving that the alternate site, which mixed elite prospects with MLB fringe talent under the watchful eye of both MiLB and MLB coaches, is a better learning environment than the usual path of going level-by-level through the minors or he’s proving that some elite prospects don’t need to spend time going level-by-level through the minor leagues. Maybe both!
Either way, I can’t be the only one that has noticed. The alternate site is still a short plane ride away from San Diego, but things will definitely be different this year. I imagine teams will stash elite prospects there until minor league games begin, but what happens after that will be very interesting.
The benefit to the team giving Abrams position versatility is that they can call on him for just about any need. I could make an argument that Abrams should be one of the very first call-ups in response to an injury to an infielder or outfielder (exact position does not matter) this season, just to see if he’s as ready as he appears to be.
That, and his success with this formula, is a really good argument for Abrams spending the season in Peoria instead of riding the bus and facing minor league pitchers.
The only question that remains, for me anyway, is if Abrams is a unicorn or if he’s the canary in the coal mine that will lead to a shift in how organizations develop their top prospects in the future.