Theories on the Padres offense

The Padres offense disappeared in a home series against the Rockies. What's the cause? And what can be done to fix it?

After winning back-to-back series against the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers and 1st place New York Mets, mostly on the back of a consistent offensive explosion that seemed ready to catapult the San Diego Padres into the stratosphere of championship contenders, the Padres split their 4-game series with the Colorado Rockies over the weekend.

I recall Bud Black’s team playing spoiler to the 2021 squad more than once, so it makes sense if you tightened up a little bit and started thinking bad thoughts after another loss on Sunday afternoon.

Mostly, you’d be forgiven if all the good things you thought about the team’s offense last week had been replaced with some fear of consistent performance from the guys when they’re at the dish with a bat in their hands. Actually…

The most common things I hear from fans of the San Diego Padres this season are:

1. “The starting pitching is great!”

2. “What is up with the offense?”

3. “I hate Stammen.”

And, while I get these sentiments, only one of them is a question and today my goal is to try and answer just such a question. But, seeing as how I’m not an expert nor anything beyond a hobbyist writing on his kitchen table while making his way though a cup of coffee, I can’t promise the answer will make sense or even be right. Let’s go on this journey together.

What is up with the offense?

Manny Machado

Let’s start in the most obvious place. Manny definitely propped the offense up (as much as a below-average offense can consider itself “propped up”) with his first two months of on-fire baseball.

He’s currently playing well (OPS of .705 over the last week), but nowhere near as good as he was to start the season. This isn’t a criticism, it was going to be impossible for him to stay that hot for the entire season. And now he’s obviously dealing with a small injuries (or two, or three…). The Padres have to find offense elsewhere.

The slumpbusters that weren’t

Sometimes, baseball moves so fast that the opinions sound dated the moment they’re said. During yesterday’s game, I heard an announcer reference the “recent turnaround” from Cronenworth (he’s legit back!), Grisham (hitting .174 over the last week) and Kim (his .643 OPS over the last week is in line with his season-long numbers).

We all saw Crone bust out and it made us want to throw other people into the category of “He’s back!” when the bats were really steaming in Milwaukee. And, while there’s someone else that I felt like should’ve been mentioned and wasn’t (Nola, who looks like himself for the first time in over a year), Kim and Grisham have gone back to being near-zeros in the lineup most nights.

That reminds me…

The Chase Headley thing

I saved this one for last one on purpose.

Back when Chase Headley was the best player on the Padres, there was always this desire to move him away from 3B. I think he even played a little bit of LF. There was talk that he could handle 2B. All of this stemmed from the belief that the corner spots (definitely on the IF, mostly on the OF) should be manned big, fearful bats. And, for the most part, Chase was not that.

Anyway, the issue is at the other corner spot. First base is a position that should be played by a big (inexpensive) masher that can catch the ball when it’s thrown to him. Neither one of those things really encapsulates the man that the Padres are paying $21 million this year to play the position.

Over the last month, Hosmer is slashing .193/.244/.229. He’s not making contact, he’s not getting on base, and he’s got no pop. Oh, and he is a pretty bad defender to boot.

There’s probably a point where the team has to consider other options at 1B, and that’s probably near the trade deadline and/or after Tatis comes back. As of right now, he’s going to get plenty of playing time (at least 50%) and the offense will suffer as a result.