Who is the Padres opening day starter?
Worrying about the Padres starting rotation, SDFC gives away two points, Wave finding an early season groove, catching up with March Madness and more.
A couple of months ago, I was really down on the 2026 version of the San Diego Padres. I didn’t feel like the team did a good job of answering any of the questions about who would play first base, who would be the backup catcher, who would add power to a lineup that desperately needs it and who would be in the starting rotation.
As the World Baseball Classic played out, I started to feel a little better about the Padres lineup. Nick Castellanos might not be a total trainwreck as a veteran 1B on a minimum contract. We’ll see.
I’m still worried about Luis Campusano as the team’s one-and-only backup catcher, backing up an undersized Freddy Fermin who has never been an MLB team’s starting catcher on opening day until this season (when he is 30 years old), but I can be talked into it working in a non-traditional way.
But, if there’s one thing that is going to derail this team’s promise and potential, it’s probably going to be its starting rotation. Case in point:
Here’s where the Padres rotation currently sits….
Nick Pivetta, coming off the best season of his career (and the most innings thrown in a single season of his career), has not looked like the same guy in Spring Training. Might he be regressing? It’s only spring training, but his 8.25 ERA is as worrisome as his 2.08 WHIP. Ideally, you’d love to see him show something more than JP Sears has.
Michael King, who was in Pivetta’s position last season (coming off the best/most season of his career), has also been laboring. His 10.19 ERA in spring training could be nothing, he’s still striking out plenty of guys and his walks seems to be fine, but the amount of contact hitters are making against him is at least a tiny bit worrisome when the team is looking for signs that he won’t repeat 2025. He leads the team in home runs allowed by a wide margin (more than double any player that will make the opening day roster).
Randy Vasquez probably has no business being this high up in an MLB starting rotation, but here we are. He’s been his normal self, which means he’s a 4th-or-5th starter that will be regularly battling against better pitchers as the Padres’ 3rd starter.
Walker Buehler is covered in the links below. There’s certainly something there, in that he hasn’t been that bad in spring training (I’ll take the 3/1 K/BB ratio and ignore the 6.60 ERA), but he also hasn’t been a good pitcher in MLB since 2021. Buehler’s overpowering fastball isn’t as overpowering as it once was and he’s trying to reinvent himself to be….probably something close to what Randy Vasquez is currently. That’s the good outcome here.
German Marquez, having been given a major league contract, is almost a lock to be the team’s 5th starter heading into the season. He’s also terrible. Like Buehler, Marquez used to be good (2022 and earlier) before age and arm surgeries sapped him of most of his power. Marquez has the distinction of being the only one on this list that has given up more runs than innings pitched, although Pivetta is right on his heels for that stat.
So, that’s likely the team’s five-man rotation heading into the season unless A.J. Preller has a rabbit he can pull out of a hat in the next few days. It is relying on almost all five guys to be better than we’ve seen from them in the spring. It’s also relying on freakishly good health, from a group that has really struggled to stay healthy in the last few seasons, because the depth behind these five guys is…..well, it’s bad enough that these are the starters.
If the Padres end up in the playoffs at the end of this season, I imagine it’s going to be on the back of their offense and bullpen….and a couple of new faces in the starting rotation.
Now, onto the links…
San Diego Padres
Salas’ big night (HR, 4 RBI) highlights Padres’ Spring Breakout - MLB.com
Salas took over Saturday’s Spring Breakout game against the Cubs, MLB’s annual showcase of the top prospects from every team. He launched a go-ahead three-run homer (and executed a smooth bat drop in the aftermath). He singled and stole a base. He threw out two Cubs base stealers and made an excellent catch in foul territory.
The Padres would lose the game, 7-5. But this was the Ethan Salas that they’ve always envisioned. Except, well, it’s been a while since they’ve gotten to see it.
Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. knows there is ‘more in there’. - San Diego Union-Tribune
Some of the perception Tatis has not been all he could be — in his own mind and the minds of others — has its root in the expectations that grew out of his doing things in his first three seasons that no player had ever done before.
He is the first player to have hit 81 home runs and stolen 52 bases over his first 273 big-league games, which is how many he played from his debut on opening day 2019 through the end of the ‘21 season.
The list of players who have put up those numbers over any 273-game span in their careers is this long: Shohei Ohtani, Barry Bonds, Christian Yelich and Tatis.
1B France, SP Buehler to break camp with Padres - MLB.com
Ty France and Walker Buehler have been informed they’ve made the team, ahead of potential opt-outs in their Minor League contracts. They will be added to the big league roster ahead of Thursday’s opener against the Tigers at Petco Park.
Buehler will factor into the Padres’ season-opening rotation plans. France will serve as a backup in the infield.
Walker Buehler Is Back. Sort Of. - FanGraphs
Buehler isn’t an easy fix. Some pitchers can learn the trendy new pitch and wake up a new man; not Buehler. You can’t teach him a cutter; he’s always thrown one. You can’t teach him a sinker; he’s always thrown one. The same with a sweeper. He’s a splitter away from being a 2/3 scale model of Darvish.
When Buehler was contending for the Cy Young Award, his fastball was in the 95-mph range routinely, and he threw it 44.5% of the time. Last year, it was more than a mile an hour slower, and he used it a quarter of the time.
San Diego FC / San Diego Wave FC
San Diego FC allows late goal, draws at home; Wave win on the road - San Diego Union-Tribune
A 2-2 draw wasn’t what San Diego FC needed Sunday against Real Salt Lake, especially given their recent struggles.
It marked San Diego’s second consecutive draw in MLS play and the second straight match in which they surrendered a late lead. A week earlier in Dallas, they conceded in the 5th minute of stoppage time.
“When you tie games that you know, when you play your best, you should win, you have to be disappointed,” San Diego FC coach Mikey Varas explained. “You have to be disappointed at the same time, we have to remember that not everything is going to be rosy and easy.”
Match review: Olatunji’s late equalizer earns RSL 2-2 road draw at San Diego FC - Deseret News
Real Salt Lake leaned on its depth in the second half, as substitutes Diego Luna, Stijn Spierings and Olatunji played key roles in shifting momentum back in favor of the visitors. After San Diego took a 2-1 lead in the 56th minute through Anders Dreyer, RSL responded with increased urgency, creating chances and pushing numbers forward in search of an equalizer.
The breakthrough came in the 85th minute, when Morgan Guilavogui delivered a dangerous ball into the box that slipped through traffic and found Olatunji, who calmly finished leveling the match at 2-2. The goal marked Olatunji’s first of the 2026 campaign and Guilavogui’s second assist of the season, sealing a valuable road point for the Claret-and-Cobalt.
San Diego Wave FC Defeats Utah Royals 2-1 in First Road Match of 2026 Season - San Diego Wave FC
The Wave found the game-winner late in the match in the 87th minute. Kimmi Ascanio dribbled through the middle of the field and laid the ball off to Kenza Dali, who played a first-time through ball into the path of rookie Lia Godfrey. The second-half substitute took a touch and calmly slotted the ball into the corner to secure the 2-1 victory.
Odds & Ends
Winners and losers from first weekend of the NCAA tournament feature John Calipari, Darryn Peterson, Big Ten and blue bloods - Yahoo Sports
Presumptive lottery pick Darryn Peterson entered the tournament with a chance to cement his spot atop NBA Draft boards and answer the questions that have dogged him throughout his freshman campaign at Kansas.
With Kansas’ underwhelming loss to St. John’s in the second round, the questions surrounding Peterson remain intact, and his spot at the top of the draft is anything but certain.
Men’s March Madness 2026: Ranking the remaining 16 teams - ESPN
The Arizona Wildcats have depth, a great coach and an overall talent pool to win the program’s -- and the West Coast’s -- first national title since 1997. That’s why they’ve been picked by many fans to win it all. Here’s a skill that might have been overlooked: an uncanny ability to get to the free throw line. College basketball fans tend to resent games that include a lot of foul calls; they’d rather see teams run up and down the court and keep things moving and exciting. But that kind of play doesn’t always lead to victories. Arizona is one of the best teams in America at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, and it is effective. The Wildcats have averaged 26.3 free throw attempts this season. They’ve recorded 72 free throw attempts in two NCAA tournament games. Even if the shots stop falling, they can still put points on the board.
Who are the WNBA labor agreement winners and losers? - The Athletic
The launch of Unrivaled and Athletes Unlimited has already reduced the number of players who choose to compete overseas during the WNBA offseason, when they can instead earn money domestically. Now that the average salary in the WNBA has increased fivefold, fewer players will need the extra paycheck if they prefer the time off.
Then again, the WNBA offseason is long, and many players don’t want to sit out for six months. Many players also have equity in Unrivaled and are invested in the league’s success. However, the finances and player experience were the draw for Unrivaled, and that is no longer an advantage over the WNBA.
The Lakers Didn’t Need Peak LeBron—They Needed This Version - The Ringer
For all the talk of his role being reduced, James is generating about the same number of points per game as Anthony Edwards and still racking up triple-doubles (as he did on the second night of a back-to-back in Miami on Friday night). His defense on and off the ball reminds no one of Kawhi Leonard, but his demise is overstated. He’s still an immovable slab of iron when he needs to be, and the Lakers are about average (which is a major win!) on that end when James is on the court.
Chappell Roan And Jorginho Are Beefing - Defector
Life is beautiful due its unpredictability. For example, until this weekend I never would have been able to imagine a scenario in which global pop superstar Chappell Roan and 2021 third-place Ballon d’Or finisher Jorginho were engaged in a feud because a security guard may or may not have yelled at Jude Law’s daughter. And yet that is precisely the world in which we live.